A confidence index for forecasting of meteor showers

Vaubaillon, Jérémie

doi:10.1016/j.pss.2017.02.003

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Predictions of Martian meteor showers bright enough for possible detection by the In-Sight mission were performed following and Vaubaillon (2017). The results are shown in Table 5.…”

Section: Meteor Imagingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact-Seismic Investigations of the InSight Mission

et al. 2018

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“…Predictions of Martian meteor showers bright enough for possible detection by the In-Sight mission were performed following and Vaubaillon (2017). The results are shown in Table 5.…”

Section: Meteor Imagingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact-Seismic Investigations of the InSight Mission

et al. 2018

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“…In these situations, forecasts are forced to rely on previous observations of the shower. Because of the low accuracy of ZHR quantitative estimates, a confidence index of meteor showers predictions was proposed by Vaubaillon (2017).…”

Section: The Importance Of Meteor Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting meteor showers: A review

Egal

2020

Planetary and Space Science

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“…In addition, the uncertainties of meteoroid orbital elements are much higher than expected before, as showed by Egal et al (2017); Vida et al (2018). Nevertheless, the need for parenthood for meteor shower is crucial in order to better perform typical dynamic works such as the exploration of the age of a meteoroid stream or the forecasting of future meteor showers (Abedin et al 2017;Vaubaillon 2017). The question thus remains whether or not a given association between a meteor (or set of meteors) and parent body is relevant.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A robust method to identify meteor showers new parent bodies from the SonotaCo and EDMOND meteoroid orbit databases

Guennoun

Vaubaillon

Čapek

et al. 2019

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Context. Several new meteor showers are added to the International Astronomical Union (IAU) list of meteor showers every year. Given the multiplication of video meteor measurements new parent bodies are to be found in addition to new showers. Such an endeavor is usually performed by comparing orbital elements, using a high threshold single-linking D sh -criterion. However, questions remain about the accuracy of the method and the veracity of the newly associated parent bodies. Aims. Our goal is to find the presence of new parent bodies in a statistical meaningful way. Methods. A search for parent bodies was performed among SonotaCo and EDMOND databases. The association of asteroids with meteors was based on different methods, discussed and compared below. In addition, a thorough statistical test was performed in order to investigate the possible random associations. Results. A list of potential new parent bodies associated with at least 50 meteors is found. A statistical test was used to show whether the group of meteor orbits and the asteroid is a random coincidence or not. Out of 54 potential new parent bodies, only three new parent bodies are not excluded by the statistical test: 2014 BN 14 , 2015 T X 24 and 2015 QT 3 , with a probability of chance occurrence of 37, 10 and 13%, respectively. This shows the need for rigorous method when searching for the existence of meteor showers and parent bodies. Conclusions. Ideally, such a test (or even better, tests) should be conducted in order to confirm (or not) the current IAU list of meteor showers. Similarly, all meteor orbit data in our databases should ideally be revisited using the latest methods providing a better estimate of the real uncertainty and accuracy of the derived orbits.Article published by EDP Sciences A84, page 1 of 9 A&A 622, A84 (2019)

show abstract

A confidence index for forecasting of meteor showers

Cited by 8 publications

References 23 publications

Impact-Seismic Investigations of the InSight Mission

Impact-Seismic Investigations of the InSight Mission

Forecasting meteor showers: A review

A robust method to identify meteor showers new parent bodies from the SonotaCo and EDMOND meteoroid orbit databases

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