A comprehensive assessment of runoff dynamics in response to climate change and human activities in a typical karst watershed, southwest China

Mo, Chongxun; Lai, Shufeng; Yang, Qing; Huang, Keke; Lei, Xingbi; Yang, LuFeng; Yan, Zhiwei; Jiang, Changhao

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117380

Cited by 19 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…The elasticity coefficient method and PLS-SEM illustrate that climate change plays a dominant role in the runoff of the YJRB (37.94% $ 61.40%). As previous researches has shown (Chen et al, 2022;Mo et al, 2023;Rodríguez Flores et al, 2022), precipitation is the primary factor influencing changes in runoff as it is the most important factor in runoff variations in the humid subtropical climate of Southern China. The surface soil is scarce, rock fissures are well-developed and unconventional flow occurs extremely after heavy precipitation in karst regions (Borsi et al, 2004).…”

Section: F I G U R Ementioning

confidence: 96%

Mediation effects of vegetation, land use and cover change and karst characteristics on hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins

Wu,

Li,

Xiao

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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A thorough understanding of the complex response of hydrologic processes to latent factors is of great significance for regional soil erosion and water resources management. However, what kind of mediation effect exists between hydrologic processes and latent factors is not yet clear, especially in heterogeneous karst regions. In this study, the elasticity coefficient method and partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS‐SEM) were used to investigate the mechanism of latent factors on hydrologic processes in karst basins and to explore the mediation effect between latent factors and hydrologic processes. The results show that the runoff of Yeji River Basin decreased during 1997–2004, but increased or stabilized since 2005. On the monthly scale, the runoff in July and December showed an ‘inverted V‐shaped’ change. Both elasticity coefficient method and PLS‐SEM showed that climate change contributed the most to runoff (direct effect accounted for 37.94% ~ 61.41%). In PLS‐SEM, the total effect sizes of latent factors on runoff were as follows: climate change (0.751 ~ 0.963) > vegetation (0.296 ~ 0.740) > karst characteristics factors (KCF) (−0.454 ~ −0.563) > human activities (−0.036 ~ −0.528) > land use and cover change (LUCC) (−0.036 ~ −0.205). In the typical karst basin, two mediation pathways have been determined: human activities‐vegetation/LUCC‐runoff, where vegetation and LUCC had a mediation effect of relationships between human activities and runoff; climate change‐KCF‐runoff, where KCF had a mediation effect of relationships between climate change and runoff. Moreover, PLS‐SEM is a preferred method to decouple the complex responses of hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins to climate change and human activities than the elasticity coefficient method. This study conducted further research and exploration on the mechanism of hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins, and provided valuable theoretical references for grassroots water managers to cope with water resources management under the context of future climate change.

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Section: F I G U R Ementioning

confidence: 96%

Mediation effects of vegetation, land use and cover change and karst characteristics on hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins

Wu,

Li,

Xiao

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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“…where ε Q P , ε Q PET , and ε Q n are P, PET, and n elasticities to surface runoff (Q), assuming that these variables are independent [66,67]. These elasticities are expressed as in Equation ( 12):…”

Section: Sensitivity Of Surface Runoff To P Pet and Environmental Con...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following [31,66,67], the environmental conditions parameter (n), representing the soil surface conditions characteristics, is determined for each year by solving a simplified Budyko-Mezentsev-Choudhury-Yang model [68][69][70], as given in Equation ( 13): To investigate the variability in P, PET, and Q at various timescales (annual, decadal, and above) over the analysis period and investigate how short-to longer-term fluctuations in P and PET are further propagated to surface runoff, we use a continuous wavelet transform (CWT). The process entails the use of a non-orthogonal Morlet mother wavelet of order 6 to generate local wavelet spectra.…”

Section: Sensitivity Of Surface Runoff To P Pet and Environmental Con...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Unravelling the Impacts of Climate Variability on Surface Runoff in the Mouhoun River Catchment (West Africa)

Zouré,

Kiema,

Yonaba

et al. 2023

Land

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This study assesses the impacts of climate variability on surface runoff generation in the Mouhoun River Catchment (MRC) in Burkina Faso, in the West African Sahel. The study uses a combination of observed and reanalysis data over the period 1983–2018 to develop a SWAT model (KGE = 0.77/0.89 in calibration/validation) further used to reconstitute the complete time series for surface runoff. Results show that annual rainfall and surface runoff follow a significant upward trend (rainfall: 4.98 mm·year−1, p-value = 0.029; runoff: 0.45 m3·s−1·year−1, p-value = 0.013). Also, rainfall appears to be the dominant driver of surface runoff (Spearman’s ρ = 0.732, p-value < 0.0001), leading surface runoff at all timescales. Surface runoff is further modulated by potential evapotranspiration with quasi-decadal timescales fluctuations, although being less correlated to surface runoff (Spearman’s ρ = −0.148, p-value = 0.386). The study highlights the added value of the coupling of hydrological modeling and reanalysis datasets to analyze the rainfall–runoff relationship in data-scarce and poorly gauged environments and therefore raises pathways to improve knowledge and understanding of the impacts of climate variability in Sahelian hydrosystems.

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“…Mountainous terrain and karst landscapes are common geographic features around the globe, especially in southern China and Europe [31,32]. Under the effect of karst geology, these regions have a relatively low capacity for water retention, rendering them very vulnerable to weather-related disasters [33].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrometeorological Insights into the Forecasting Performance of Multi-Source Weather over a Typical Hill-Karst Basin, Southwest China

Mo,

Wan,

Lei

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

Self Cite

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Reliable precipitation forecasts are essential for weather-related disaster prevention and water resource management. Multi-source weather (MSWX), a recently released ensemble meteorological dataset, has provided new opportunities with open access, fine horizontal resolution (0.1°), and a lead time of up to seven months. However, few studies have comprehensively evaluated the performance of MSWX in terms of precipitation forecasting and hydrological modeling, particularly in hill-karst basins. The key concerns and challenges are how precipitation prediction performance relates to elevation and how to evaluate the hydrologic performance of MSWX in hill-karst regions with complex geographic heterogeneity. To address these concerns and challenges, this study presents a comprehensive evaluation of MSWX at the Chengbi River Basin (Southwest China) based on multiple statistical metrics, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and a multi-site calibration strategy. The results show that all ensemble members of MSWX overestimated the number of precipitation events and tended to have lower accuracies at higher altitudes. Meanwhile, the error did not significantly increase with the increased lead time. The “00” member exhibited the best performance among the MSWX members. In addition, the multi-site calibration-enhanced SWAT had reliable performance (Average Nash–Sutcliffe value = 0.73) and hence can be used for hydrological evaluation of MSWX. Furthermore, MSWX achieved satisfactory performance (Nash–Sutcliffe value > 0) in 22% of runoff event predictions, but the error increased with longer lead times. This study gives some new hydrometeorological insights into the performance of MSWX, which can provide feedback on its development and applications.

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A comprehensive assessment of runoff dynamics in response to climate change and human activities in a typical karst watershed, southwest China

Cited by 19 publications

References 50 publications

Mediation effects of vegetation, land use and cover change and karst characteristics on hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins

Mediation effects of vegetation, land use and cover change and karst characteristics on hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins

Unravelling the Impacts of Climate Variability on Surface Runoff in the Mouhoun River Catchment (West Africa)

Hydrometeorological Insights into the Forecasting Performance of Multi-Source Weather over a Typical Hill-Karst Basin, Southwest China

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