A comprehensive approach to scenario-based risk management for Arctic waters

Bergström, Martin; Browne, Thomas; Ehlers, Sören; Helle, Inari; Herrnring, Hauke; Khan, Faisal; Kubiczek, Jan M.; Kujala, Pentti; Körgesaar, Mihkel; Leira, Bernt J.; Parviainen, Tuuli; Polojärvi, Arttu; Suominen, Mikko; Taylor, Rocky; Tuhkuri, Jukka; Vanhatalo, Jarno; Veitch, Brian

doi:10.1080/09377255.2022.2049967

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…1, the PC provisions are completed by the 'Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System' (POLARIS) that evaluates vessel operational capacities in different ice conditions as per the ship class (IMO, 2016). As the 'Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System' (AIRSS), POLARIS has a direct impact on the ship's operational evaluation and supports the decision-makers for a safer route (Fedi et al, 2018b) while it also shows some limitations (Bergström et al, 2022;Browne et al, 2022;Lee et al, 2021).…”

Section: Nep Flows Risk Models and Mitigation Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of the IMO taxonomy on casualty investigation: Analysis of 20 years of marine accidents along the North-East Passage

Fedi,

Faury,

Etienne

et al. 2024

Marine Policy

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Section: Nep Flows Risk Models and Mitigation Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of the IMO taxonomy on casualty investigation: Analysis of 20 years of marine accidents along the North-East Passage

Fedi,

Faury,

Etienne

et al. 2024

Marine Policy

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“…The risk assessment models used in these studies are often not validated by actual data of Arctic navigation (Cao et al., 2022; Guo et al., 2022; Vanhatalo et al., 2021). This lack of validation raises questions about the reliability and applicability of the models (Bergström et al., 2022; Zhang, Zhang, et al., 2020). Because there is limited data and information available on Arctic navigation, expert judgments and knowledge play a crucial role in assessing safety risks (Fu et al., 2021; Lu et al., 2022).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

An interpretable XGBoost‐based approach for Arctic navigation risk assessment

Yao

Kang

et al. 2023

Risk Analysis

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The Northern Sea Route (NSR) makes travel between Europe and Asia shorter and quicker than a southern transit via the Strait of Malacca and Suez Canal. It provides greater access to Arctic resources such as oil and gas. As global warming accelerates, melting Arctic ice caps are likely to increase traffic in the NSR and enhance its commercial viability. Due to the harsh Arctic environment imposing threats to the safety of ship navigation, it is necessary to assess Arctic navigation risk to maintain shipping safety. Currently, most studies are focused on the conventional assessment of the risk, which lacks the validation based on actual data. In this study, actual data about Arctic navigation environment and related expert judgments were used to generate a structured data set. Based on the structured data set, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and alternative methods were used to establish models for the assessment of Arctic navigation risk, which were validated using cross‐validation. The results show that compared with alternative models, XGBoost models have the best performance in terms of mean absolute errors and root mean squared errors. The XGBoost models can learn and reproduce expert judgments and knowledge for the assessment of Arctic navigation risk. Feature importance (FI) and shapley additive explanations (SHAP) are used to further interpret the relationship between input data and predictions. The application of XGBoost, FI, and SHAP is aimed to improve the safety of Arctic shipping using advanced artificial intelligence techniques. The validated assessment enhances the quality and robustness of assessment.

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“…For ice condition modelling (see Table 15), there are several new model features, e.g., using RADARSAT-2 image into numerical calculations to improve ice thickness estimation , and enhanced Sea Ice Model for Arctic ice thickness (Appel, 2016), ice thickness estimation based on satellite-derived ice age (Liu et al, 2020), as well as brash ice growth model development (Riska et al, 2019). The models have improved some features comparing to the current available ice charts from different countries, however, still have various uncertainties and limitations on ice ridge and pressured ice information as mentioned by Bergström et al (2022). In addition, the main challenge is that there is a number of oceanographic scale models based e.g.…”

Section: Extensive Review Outcomes Outside the Project To Supplement ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

On risk management of shipping system in ice-covered waters: Review, analysis and toolbox based on an eight-year polar project

Kujala

Kuikka

2022

Ocean Engineering

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A comprehensive approach to scenario-based risk management for Arctic waters

Cited by 9 publications

References 72 publications

Application of the IMO taxonomy on casualty investigation: Analysis of 20 years of marine accidents along the North-East Passage

Application of the IMO taxonomy on casualty investigation: Analysis of 20 years of marine accidents along the North-East Passage

An interpretable XGBoost‐based approach for Arctic navigation risk assessment

On risk management of shipping system in ice-covered waters: Review, analysis and toolbox based on an eight-year polar project

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