A Comprehensive Analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak situation in India

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 in different parts of the world is a major concern for all the administrative units of respective countries. India is also facing this very tough task for controlling the virus outbreak and has managed its growth rate through some strict measures. This study presents the current situation of coronavirus spread in India along with the impact of various measures taken for it. With the help of data sources (till 7 th -8 th April 2020) from various state units of India and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, this study presents various trends and patterns. This study answers six different research questions in a comprehensive manner. It has been reported that growth rate of infected cases has been controlled with the help of National Lockdown, however some uncontrolled mass level events had a negative impact on the infected cases. With the help of exponential and polynomial regression modelling, the predictions of up to 75000 cases have been done by the end of April 2020. It has also been seen that there are some prominent clusters and patient nodes in the network of patients which are the major influencers for COVID-19 spread. Also, death rate case predictions have been done through two-class classification models with an accuracy of 60%. At the end, strategies for continuation for lockdown has been discussed and presented. It appears that only essential services should be open for the citizens of India and the national lockdown should be carried on for next 2-4 weeks. This study will be useful for the Government of India and various states of India, Administrative Units of India, Frontline health workforce of India, researchers and scientists. This study will also be favorable for the administrative units of other countries to consider various aspects related to the control of COVID-19 outspread in their respective regions.

A comprehensive estimation and analysis of the basic reproduction number (R0) of novel corona virus in India: A comparative study with different lockdown phase of COVID-19

“…from 22 March 2020, but still about the same 20 percent level. And the trend line also expected a moderate growth of 28 percent per day [36]. Furthermore, the next lockdowns shows only slight changes in terms of declining R0 value.…”

“…In applied to measure the exact prevalence of COVID-19 infections in India, the well-established National Family Health Survey (NFHS) structure can be adopted as an analysis to reach the prevalence and severity of COVID-19 (28). Six objectives of the research are broadly defined in the research studies by Rajan et al (29). It has already been noticed that rate of growth of infected cases has been monitored with the support of National Lockdown, even though some unrestrained mass level incidents might have adversely affected the infected cases.…”

Economic impact of COVID-19 on the Indian healthcare sector: an overview

“…7 From the 28 states and 9 Union territories of India, COVID-19 affected nearly 75% of the areas of India with highest number of cases being recorded in states of Maharashtra and Kerala. 12 Announcement of a one day "janata curfew" on 22 March 2020 showed a single day decline of cases, but till 24 March 2020, 536 people had tested positive and 10 deaths reported (case fatality rate ~1.9%). 10 This day marked a landmark event as the country's Prime Minister announced a 21-day countrywide lockdown from 25 March 2020.…”

“…16 In terms of available funding, from the 3.6% GDP investment in healthcare, only 1.5% is by the Government, and more than 2% is borne by households, that is, 65% expenditure is out of pocket. 12 The system in place, when COVID struck was thus underprepared to deal with this emergency.…”

Forecast of COVID-19 Cases in Indonesia with the Triple Exponential Smoothing Algorithm

“…Its main objective is to take the necessary steps to study the impact of the deployment which will assist in policy planning. Several researchers have predicted the spread of COVID 19 using different algorithms such as Machine Learning and Deep Learning, including neural networks for deep learning polynomial fitting, exponential smoothing, ARIMA and Backpropagation, and Fuzzy Tsukamoto [8][9][10][11]. In this study, the Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) algorithm will be used to see the development of the spread of COVID-19.…”