A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part II: intraseasonal variability

Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew G.; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3904-6

Cited by 16 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…While SST variability in other ocean basins has also been connected to IAV in China (e.g. Qiu et al, 2014;Cao et al, 2014), Stephan et al (2017a) did not find an influence of other basins on their EOT patterns. Therefore, we here focus on the teleconnection to ENSO.…”

Section: Teleconnection To Ensomentioning

confidence: 70%

“…In a previous study, Stephan et al (2017a) Dool et al, 2000). To investigate coherent temporal rainfall variability, we first compute the China-averaged time series of rainfall anomalies and search for the grid point that best explains its variance (Smith, 2004).…”

Section: Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnectionsmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…All MetUM precipitation data are interpolated to the APHRODITE grid to allow for a comparison with observations. We chose the APHRODITE grid so that the observed EOT patterns do not change from the ones reported in Stephan et al (2017a). To quantify the spatial coherence of rainfall, we correlate rainfall anomalies at each grid point with this so-called base point.…”

Section: Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…5). Dynamical mechanisms proposed for this anticyclonic circulation include suppressed convection over the western equatorial Pacific due to a weakened Walker circulation during El Niño (Zhang et al, 1996), Rossby waves triggered by SST anomalies over the western tropical Pacific (Matsuno, 1966;Gill, 1980;Wang et al, 2000), and the non-linear atmospheric interaction between the annual cycle and ENSO variability (Stuecker et al, 2013(Stuecker et al, , 2015Xie and Zhou, 2017). Explanations for the long persistence include local wind-evaporation-SST feedback (Wang et al, 2000) and the delayed Indian Ocean warming (e.g.…”

Section: Teleconnection To Ensomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rotstayn et al (2010) showed that EOT analysis is useful for assessing regional climate variability in GCMs through the analysis of the leading patterns of Australian annual rainfall. In a previous study, Stephan et al (2017a) performed EOT analysis on 1951-2007 highresolution gridded precipitation data over China in all seasons. Their results serve as a benchmark for our model assessment.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalysis data for their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. To analyse the sensitivity to air-sea coupling and horizontal resolution, atmosphere-only and coupled integrations at atmospheric horizontal resolutions of N96, N216 and N512 (corresponding to ∼ 200, 90 and 40 km in the zonal direction at the equator, respectively) are analysed. The mean and interannual variance of seasonal precipitation are too high in all simulations over China but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to simulated and observed precipitation to identify spatial patterns of temporally coherent interannual variability in seasonal precipitation. To connect these patterns to large-scale atmospheric and coupled air-sea processes, atmospheric and oceanic fields are regressed onto the corresponding seasonal mean time series. All simulations reproduce the observed leading pattern of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are the four leading patterns associated with the observed physical mechanisms. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. However, finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. This shows that evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient. The EOT analysis adds knowledge about coherent variability and associated mechanisms.

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Section: Teleconnection To Ensomentioning

confidence: 70%

Section: Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnectionsmentioning

confidence: 84%

Section: Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Teleconnection To Ensomentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

et al. 2018

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Possible causes of the flooding over south China during the 2015/2016 winter

Guo

Zhu

Liu

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Sequential heavy rainfall clusters and resultant severe winter flooding was observed over South China during the 2015/2016 super El Niño event. In the present, the intra‐seasonal oscillations (ISOs) related with heavy rainfall over East Asia from late autumn to early winter in 2015/2016 were investigated using the daily in situ rainfall records and the NCEP‐DOE Reanalysis data set. Results suggested that the successive heavy winter rainfall events in 2015/2016 were contributed by the ISOs with significant periods of 10–25 and 30–45 days. The wet phase of 10–25‐day ISO was jointly induced by the anomalous convergence of the low‐level water vapour associated with the tropical–subtropical interaction and the upper‐level divergence attributed to the eastwards propagating wavetrain. However in the wet phase of the 30–45‐day ISO, the anomalous upper‐level divergence was possibly caused by the weaker East Asian trough and the stronger barotropic westerly in subtropics. The 30–45‐day ISO can facilitate the eastwards propagation of the 10–25‐day ISO by providing a benefit upper‐level waveguide. Afterwards, the low‐level southwesterly surrounding the Tibetan Plateau gets enhanced to bring more moisture into South China where the winter flooding was serious in 2015/2016. In contrast, the more‐than‐normal winter rainfall was weaker in the super El Niño of 1997/1998 due to the lack of the 30–45‐day ISO. Therefore, the strongest winter rainfall anomaly over SC was ascribed to the superposition between the wet phases of 10–25 and 30–45‐day ISOs in 2015/2016.

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Seasonal rainfall forecasting for the Yangtze River basin using statistical and dynamical models

Qian

Chen

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Summer monsoon rainfall forecasting in the Yangtze River basin is highly valuable for water resource management and for the control of floods and droughts. However, improving the accuracy of seasonal forecasting remains a challenge. In this study, a statistical model and four dynamical global circulation models (GCMs) are applied to conduct seasonal rainfall forecasts for the Yangtze River basin. The statistical forecasts are achieved by establishing a linear regression relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall. The dynamical forecasts are achieved by downscaling the rainfall predicted by the four GCMs at the monthly and seasonal scales. Historical data of monthly SST and GCM hindcasts from 1982-2010 are used to make the forecast. The results show that the SST-based statistical model generally outperforms the GCM simulations, with higher forecasting accuracy that extends to longer lead times of up to 12 months. The SST statistical model achieves a correlation coefficient up to 0.75 and the lowest mean relative error of 6%. In contrast, the GCMs exhibit a sharply decreasing forecast accuracy with lead times longer than 1 month. Accordingly, the SST statistical model can provide reliable guidance for the seasonal rainfall forecasts in the Yangtze River basin, while the results of GCM simulations could serve as a reference for shorter lead times. Extensive scope exists for further improving the rainfall forecasting accuracy of GCM simulations.

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A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part II: intraseasonal variability

Cited by 16 publications

References 61 publications

Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

Possible causes of the flooding over south China during the 2015/2016 winter

Seasonal rainfall forecasting for the Yangtze River basin using statistical and dynamical models

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