A complex systems methodology to transition management

Abstract

There is a general sense of urgency that major technological transitions are required for sustainable development. Such transitions are best perceived as involving multiple transition steps along a transition path. Due to the path dependent and irreversible nature of innovation in complex technologies, an initial transition step along some preferred path may cut off paths that later may turn out to be more desirable. For these reasons, initial transition steps should allow for future flexibility, where we define flexibility as robustness regarding changing evidence and changing preferences. We propose a technology assessment methodology based on rugged fitness landscapes, which identifies the flexibility of initial transition steps in complex technologies. We illustrate our methodology by an empirical application to 2,646 possible future car systems.

Agent-based Models of the Economy

“…The global optimum, it is worth remembering, is only 1 and it corresponds to the decision by both governments to fully support only innovative sectors. Furthermore, the decision space resembles, from many perspectives, an NK network (Kauffman, 1996), and NK networks have already been effectively used to study complex and rugged solution spaces in policymaking and societal transitions (e.g., Alkemade et al, 2009). However, the analysis here does not follow the common methodology for NK networks analysis, but the agent-based approach, because here we are focusing on coordination and interaction between agents.…”

Exploring the transition potential of renewable energy communities

“…In contrast, Safarzyń ska, Frenken, and van den Bergh (2012) define the regime as a combination of tangible and intangible elements which encompass besides rules also material artifacts. Alkemade, Frenken, Hekkert, and Schwoon (2009) describe the regime as an interdependent complex system composed of numerous combinations of subsystems. They argue that it is built up from several interdependent subsystems combined in different ways, which determine the fitness of the regime; all possible combinations of subsystems form the design space of the regime.…”

Developing Service-Based Business Models: Which Innovation Capability for Which Innovation Dimension?

“…One way to consider them in the context of service or business model innovation is the extension of the design space: largening the space from that one the designer has in mind when only focusing on the artefact. For instance, when analyzing developments in the car industry, Alkemade et al (2009) exclusively took into account tangible features, whereas Bohnsack et al (2014) also included service aspects and value network. A service innovation or product-service system lens has also been used by those researchers in the automobile industry who have focused on aspects such as end-of-life management, vehicle ownership structure, or modes of producer-user interactions (Williams 2006;Ceschin and Vezzoli 2010).…”