A compendium and comparison of 25 project evaluation techniques. Part 2: Ratio, payback, and accounting methods

Remer, Donald S.; Nieto, Armando

doi:10.1016/0925-5273(95)00105-0

Cited by 72 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…We used the DALY as it is both a measure of burden and a measure of outcome for economic analysis, with cost effectiveness analysis the most suitable project evaluation technique for this type of non-monetary outcome measure. 37 In this paper we report a method to calculate the burden currently averted from cross sectional survey data and to calculate the burden likely to be averted from a new treatment programme, with the method relying on a reduction in disability weight. Taking depression as an exemplar we show that some 13% of the burden of depression is currently being averted by specific treatment at a cost of some $37 000 per DALY gained.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using epidemiological data to model efficiency in reducing the burden of depression

Andrews

Sanderson

Corry

et al. 2000

J Ment Health Policy Econ

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BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease study has suggested that mental disorders are the leading cause of disability burden in the world. This study takes the leading cause of mental disorder burden, depression, and trials an approach for defining the present and optimal efficiency of treatment in an Australian setting. AIMS OF THE STUDY: To examine epidemiological and service use data for depression to trial an approach for modelling (i) the burden that is currently averted from current care, (ii) the burden that is potentially avertable from a hypothetical regime of optimal care, (iii) the efficiency or cost-effectiveness of both current and optimal services for depression and (iv) the potential of current knowledge for reducing burden due to depression, by applying the WHO five-step method for priorities for investment in health research and development. METHODS: Effectiveness and efficiency were calculated in disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by adjusting the disability weight for people who received efficacious treatment. Data on service use and treatment outcome were obtained from a variety of secondary sources, including the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, and efficacy of individual treatments from published meta-analyses expressed in effect sizes. Direct costs were estimated from published sources. RESULTS: Fifty-five percent of people with depression had had some contact with either primary care or specialist services. Effective coverage of depression was low, with only 32% of cases receiving efficacious treatment that could have lessened their severity (averted disability). In contrast, a proposed model of optimal care for the population management of depression provided increased treatment contacts and a better outcome. In terms of efficiency, optimal care dominated current care, with more health gain for less expenditure (28 632 DALYs were averted at a cost of AUD295 million with optimal care, versus 19 297 DALYs averted at a cost of AUD720 million with current care). However, despite the existence of efficacious technologies for treating depression, only 13% of the burden was averted from present active treatment, primarily because of the low effective coverage. Potentially avertable burden is nearly three times this, if effective treatments can be delivered in appropriate amounts to all those who need it. DISCUSSION: This paper reports a method to calculate the burden currently averted from cross-sectional survey data, and to calculate the burden likely to be averted from an optimal programme estimated from randomized controlled trial data. The approach taken here makes a number of assumptions: that people are accurate in reporting their service use, that effect sizes are a suitable basis for modelling improvements in disability and that the method used to translate effect sizes to disability weight change is valid. The robustness of these assumptions is discussed. Nonetheless it would appear that while optimal care could do more than present services to red...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using epidemiological data to model efficiency in reducing the burden of depression

Andrews

Sanderson

Corry

et al. 2000

J Ment Health Policy Econ

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“…If these definitions of a project are taken as a departure point it can be said that the project itself will have minimal economic, environmental and/or social consequences, but that it will be the "product" or deliverables of the project that will have these consequences and impacts. This concept is supported in the financial analyses of projects where the financial implications of the project's deliverables are included in the profitability, Return on Investment (ROI) and Net Present Value (NPV) calculations [26].…”

Section: Defining Life Cycles In the Manufacturing Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable Project Life Cycle Management: the need to integrate life cycles in the manufacturing sector

Labuschagne

Brent

2005

International Journal of Project Management

276

171

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The pressure on businesses to incorporate the principles of sustainable development into policies and activities is mounting. Project management methodologies are not excluded from this pressure. The current project management frameworks do not effectively address the three goals of sustainable development, i.e., social equity, economic efficiency and environmental performance. A prerequisite for aligning these frameworks with the principles of sustainable development is a clear understanding of the various life cycles involved in a project and the interactions between these life cycles. The way forward to achieve true Sustainable Project Life Cycle Management in the manufacturing is subsequently outlined.

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“…In comparing projects with different makespans using ENPV, their makespans should not be dramatically different because of the opportunity cost of money tied up in the projects. This concern has not prevented NPV being one of the most prominent measures used for project evaluation (Remer and Nieto ). While it is necessary for completeness to include ENPV calculations for projects with large failure probability, we do not recommend the use of ENPV as the primary measure of comparison between projects with very different probabilities of success.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Project Evaluation and Selection with Task Failures

Zhao

Hall

Liu³

2020

Production and Operations Management

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We consider a company that schedules the tasks of its projects to maximize their expected net present value (ENPV) when tasks may fail. The failure of any task terminates the project immediately. We show that for projects with certain decreasing failure rates, the ENPV optimization problem can be solved using a linear program. The main focus of our work is on how constant task failure rates contribute to decreasing project risk as tasks are completed. Under constant task failure rate, earlier completion of a task improves its probability of success and the risk profile of the project. However, it may also accelerate costs, which worsen discounted cash flow. We show the equivalence of cash flow discount rate and failure rate. Further, if task failures are independent, then the failure rates are additive. We develop a model that (a) recognizes the reduction in project risk when a task is completed, (b) implements this risk reduction into the ENPV calculation, and (c) permits optimization of the ENPV through sequencing and timing decisions for the tasks. We design an algorithm to solve the problem optimally. This enables us to validate the contributions of our work using two computational studies. The first study demonstrates a significant increase in maximum project ENPV from improved project scheduling. The second study demonstrates a significant increase in total project portfolio value as a result of better informed project selection. Our work motivates companies to develop more precise information about the failure risks of their project tasks.

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A compendium and comparison of 25 project evaluation techniques. Part 2: Ratio, payback, and accounting methods

Cited by 72 publications

References 14 publications

Using epidemiological data to model efficiency in reducing the burden of depression

Using epidemiological data to model efficiency in reducing the burden of depression

Sustainable Project Life Cycle Management: the need to integrate life cycles in the manufacturing sector

Project Evaluation and Selection with Task Failures

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