A comparison of the Beveridge curve dynamics in Italy and USA

Abstract

In this article, we investigate the Beveridge curve dynamics in the USA and Italy by means of a cointegrated structural VAR model. A simple economic model is introduced to motivate the identifying assumptions of the empirical analysis. A stable long-run relationship is found for both countries. In order to study the dynamic behaviour of the model, and to decompose unemployment and vacancy fluctuations, we identify three common stochastic trends. The empirical results suggest that there are some sources of hysteresis in unemployment in both countries. Transitory shocks are also identified to account for the short-run dynamics of the model. The approach allows us to detach the long-run from the short-run dynamics, in order to provide information on the cyclical and structural Beveridge curve.