A comparison of the 31 January–1 February 1953 and 5–6 December 2013 coastal flood events around the UK

Abstract

A North Sea storm surge during 31 January-1 February 1953 caused Northwest Europe's most severe coastal floods in living memory. This event killed more than 2000 people on the coasts of England, the Netherlands, and Belgium. In the UK, where this study focuses, this event was a pivotal influence for flood risk management. Subsequent progress included a national tide gauge network, a storm surge forecasting and warning service, and major defense upgrades such as the Thames Barrier. Almost 60-years later, on 5-6 December 2013 Storm "Xaver" generated a surge event of similar magnitude. This paper describes a detailed comparison of these two events in the UK in terms of: (1) the meteorological conditions; (2) the observed high sea levels; and (3) the coastal flooding and impacts. The 1953 storm had a more southerly track and generated bigger waves due to the north-northwesterly onshore winds off East Anglia. The 2013 storm had a more west-to-east path from the north Atlantic to Scandinavia. Consequently, the 1953 high waters were more extreme in the southern North Sea. However, the 2013 event coincided with larger astronomical tides, resulting in a larger spatial "footprint". The extreme sea levels impacted communities on the west, east, and south coasts, with 2800 properties flooded during the 2013 event, compared to 24,000 properties (mainly between the Humber and Thames) in 1953. The 1953 floods remain a benchmark in the UK as an event which included failed defenses, damaged property and infrastructure and loss of life. Measures taken after 1953 greatly reduced the consequences of the 5-6 December 2013 storm. Continued monitoring of extreme sea levels and their consequences is important to inform a realistic perspective on future planning and resilience.

Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK

“…2a,b) of several events is lower than it should be. Although we have data at some sites for these events, tide gauges were not necessarily operational at the time along the stretches of the coastline where the sea levels or skew surges were likely to have been most extreme; this is the case for the benchmark 1953 event 21 . Notwithstanding these issues, our analysis of the events that we have on record does provide important new insights, as described below.…”

“…These events caused an estimated £2.5 billion in damages, but much greater destruction was prevented due to the effectiveness of defences 21 . What appears noteworthy about this period is: (1) the large spatial ‘footprint’ of some of the events (i.e., simultaneous flooding along extended coastline stretches during the same storm); and (2) the temporal ‘clustering’ of the flooding events (i.e., events occurring one after another in close succession) 22 .…”

A systematic assessment of maritime disruptions affecting UK ports, coastal areas and surrounding seas from 1950 to 2014

“…However, such developments do not provide an impervious protection for coastal businesses and residents, and some losses continue. On the 5 th December 2013 a storm surge resulted in flooding of the port of Immingham and related damage of port facilities (ABPmer 2014; Wadey et al 2015b). In November 2005 parts of Hayling Island, Hampshire were flooded by unusual long period swell waves, despite the earlier installation of improved defences (Ruocco et al 2011).…”

Spatial Characteristics and Duration of Extreme Wave Events around the English Coastline

“…Coastal forecasting and analysis in the UK is heavily weighted towards the prediction of tidal surges, particularly in view of the notable extreme water levels recorded along the North Sea coast on 5/6 December 2013 [29,40,41]. For other coastal regions, however, particularly the Southeast and Southwest (including West Lyme Bay), tidal surges exceeding~1 m are uncommon, as illustrated in Figure 9, which shows the maximum skew surge recorded at the Class A tide gauge sites between 2004 and 2014 (data extracted from Haigh et al [42]), together with the spatial distribution of maximum H S measurements.…”