A comparison of reserve selection algorithms using data on terrestrial vertebrates in Oregon

Csuti, Blair; Polasky, Stephen; Williams, Paul H.; Pressey, Robert L.; Camm, Jeffrey D.; Kershaw, Melanie; Kiester, A. Ross; Downs, Brian T.; Hamilton, Richard; Huso, Manuela; Sahr, Kevin

doi:10.1016/s0006-3207(96)00068-7

Cited by 391 publications

(280 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Although complex, globally optimal approaches have been developed (Csuti et al 1997), we use a simpler heuristic approach owing to the very large number of pixels that are prioritized in our application (~85,000). Here, an initial step consists of summing species' distributions to identify the area of maximum species richness; species occurring in this area are identified, and eliminated from further analysis.…”

Section: Palavrasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consequences of global climate change for geographic distributions of cerrado tree species

2003

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The present study applies a series of new techniques to understand the conservation of Cerrado tree species in the face of climate change. We applied techniques from the emerging field of ecological niche modeling to develop a first-pass assessment of likely effects of climate change on tree species' distributions in the Cerrado biome by relating known occurrence points to electronic maps summarizing ecological dimensions. Distributional data represent 15,657 records for 162 tree species occurring in Cerrado. By focusing on the trees of one important and highly endemic biome, rather than the biota of a political unit, we were able to focus on developing biome-wide projections. An important limitation of this study is that only those species with more than 30 unique occurrence records were used-hence, the study is limited to those species of relatively broad geographic distribution, and does not take into account those species with narrower geographic distributions. Global climate change scenarios considered were drawn from the general circulation models of HadCM2; we assessed both a conservative and a less conservative scenario of how climates could change over the next 50 year using the (Hadley HHGSDX50 and HHGGAX50 scenarios, respectively): HHGSDX50 assumes 0.5%/yr CO2 increase, whereas HHGGAX50 assumes a 1%/yr CO2 increase. Results of predictions of present and future distributions varied widely among species. Present distributional models predicted areas of 655,211-2,287,482 out of the 2,496,230 km 2 core area of Cerrado in Brazil. All models used to represent species' present geographic ranges were highly statistically significant based on independent test data sets of point localities. Most species were projected to decline seriously in potential distributional area, with both scenarios anticipating losses of >50% of potential distributional area for essentially all species. Indeed, out of 162 species examined, between the two climate change scenarios, 18 (HHGSDX50 scenario) -56 (HHGGAX50 scenario) were predicted to end up without habitable areas in the Cerrado region, and 91 (HHGSDX50 scenario) -123 (HHGGAX50 scenario) species were predicted to decline by more than 90% in potential distributional area in the Cerrado region. Bearing in mind the limitations of the method, and considering its explicit assumptions, these results nevertheless should be cause for ample concern regarding Cerrado biodiversity. Since only 2.25% of the Cerrado biome is presently protected, this future scenario presents a pessimistic forecast, which would likely include widespread species loss from the biome, as well as dramatic shifts to the south and east, further complicating conservation planning efforts.

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Section: Palavrasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consequences of global climate change for geographic distributions of cerrado tree species

2003

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“…Consequently, continuous measures of narrow endemism are often used, such as weighted richness by inverse rangesize, termed rangesize rarity (e.g. Csuti et al,1997), which although dominated by rare species, considers all species (e.g. Williams et al, 1996a).…”

Section: Measuring Species Richness and Narrow Endemismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of species richness and narrow endemism of terrestrial bird species in the Afrotropical region

et al. 2002

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Geographical patterns and peaks of species richness and narrow endemism (defined by rangerestrictedness and range-size rarity) are described for terrestrial Afrotropical birds and subsets thereof based on residency, endemism, and taxonomy. Species richness for residents and Afrotropical endemics (species globally restricted to sub-Saharan Africa) peaks along the mountains and adjacent lowlands of eastern and southern Africa. Isolated mountains in central and western Africa and the lowlands of the north-eastern Congo Basin (Ituri) are highlighted to a lesser degree. Peaks of narrow endemism occur in these areas as well as in the Ethiopian Highlands (particularly for non-passerines), Somalia (particularly for passerines), and the Angolan Escarpment. Within residents, patterns of species richness vary greatly between Afrotropical endemics (which concentrate in forests on mountains and adjacent lowlands, and the southern Brachystegia woodlands) and non-endemic residents (which concentrate in Sudanian woodlands and the Ethiopian Highlands). Patterns of species richness of residents (species that breed in the Afrotropics) and non-breeding migrants (non-breeding visitors to the Afrotropics) also show notable differences. The latter concentrate in areas close to the Palaearctic, which forms their distributional range centres. Patterns of species richness and narrow endemism for Afrotropical endemics show broad-scale coincidence within mountains or mountain-lowland complexes, particularly the Cameroon-Bamenda Highland system, East African rift system and Eastern Arc mountains.However, fine-scale coincidence of peaks of species richness and narrow endemism within these complexes is low. Narrow endemism peaks occur in areas of topographical complexity, which may have conferred localized climatic stability over short-, medium-, and long-term climatic cycles (sensu Fjeldsa , 1994; Fjeldsa et al., 1997), allowing these areas to act as `species pumps'. Species accumulate in areas of high productivity. Lack of fine-scale coincidence of narrow endemism and species richness peaks have implications for conservation prioritization exercises.

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“…Applications of these methods to find optimal solutions to the reserve site selection problem include Cocks and Baird (1989), Saetersdal et al (1993), Church et al (1996), Kiester et al (1996), Csuti et al (1997), Pressey et al (1997), Ando et al (1998), Snyder et al (1999), and Polasky et al (2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic reserve site selection

Costello

Polasky

2004

Resource and Energy Economics

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299

212

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A comparison of reserve selection algorithms using data on terrestrial vertebrates in Oregon

Cited by 391 publications

References 31 publications

Consequences of global climate change for geographic distributions of cerrado tree species

Consequences of global climate change for geographic distributions of cerrado tree species

Patterns of species richness and narrow endemism of terrestrial bird species in the Afrotropical region

Dynamic reserve site selection

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