A comparison of PMIP2 model simulations and the MARGO proxy reconstruction for tropical sea surface temperatures at last glacial maximum

Otto‐Bliesner, Bette L.; Schneider, Robert; Brady, Esther C.; Kučera, Michal; Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako; Bard, Édouard; Braconnot, Pascale; Crucifix, Michel; Hewitt, Chris; Kageyama, Masa; Marti, Olivier; Paul, André; Rosell-Melé, Antoni; Waelbroeck, C.; Weber, S. L.; Weinelt, Mara; Yu, Yongqiang

doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0509-0

Cited by 132 publications

(129 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Coastal upwelling regions record much warmer SSTs not simulated by the model. Coastal upwelling regions are difficult for climate models to resolve and simulate well [46]. The reconstructions show SST cooling in excess of 2 • C over the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, though with limited data coverage in the latter.…”

Section: Simulated Surface Temperatures (A) Mean Annual Surface Tempementioning

confidence: 99%

How warm was the last interglacial? New model–data comparisons

Otto‐Bliesner

Rosenbloom

Stone

et al. 2013

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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A Community Climate System Model, Version 3 (CCSM3) simulation for 125 ka during the Last Interglacial (LIG) is compared to two recent proxy reconstructions to evaluate surface temperature changes from modern times. The dominant forcing change from modern, the orbital forcing, modified the incoming solar insolation at the top of the atmosphere, resulting in large positive anomalies in boreal summer. Greenhouse gas concentrations are similar to those of the pre-industrial (PI) Holocene. CCSM3 simulates an enhanced seasonal cycle over the Northern Hemisphere continents with warming most developed during boreal summer. In addition, year-round warming over the North Atlantic is associated with a seasonal memory of sea ice retreat in CCSM3, which extends the effects of positive summer insolation anomalies on the high-latitude oceans to winter months. The simulated Arctic terrestrial annual warming, though, is much less than the observational evidence, suggesting either missing feedbacks in the simulation and/or interpretation of the proxies. Over Antarctica, CCSM3 cannot reproduce the large LIG warming recorded by the Antarctic ice cores, even with simulations designed to consider observed evidence of early LIG warmth in Southern Ocean and Antarctica records and the possible disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Comparisons with a HadCM3 simulation indicate that sea ice is important for understanding model polar responses. Overall, the models simulate little global annual surface temperature change, while the proxy reconstructions suggest a global annual warming at LIG (as compared to the PI Holocene) of approximately 1 ° C, though with possible spatial sampling biases. The CCSM3 SRES B1 (low scenario) future projections suggest high-latitude warmth similar to that reconstructed for the LIG may be exceeded before the end of this century.

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Section: Simulated Surface Temperatures (A) Mean Annual Surface Tempementioning

confidence: 99%

How warm was the last interglacial? New model–data comparisons

Otto‐Bliesner

Rosenbloom

Stone

et al. 2013

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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159

208

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“…Four major factors contribute to these changes. The lower greenhouse gas concentration and the presence of the ice sheets decrease air temperature and water vapor content, 1 3 2010), hemispheric (Li and Battisti 2008;Laine et al 2009;Rojas et al 2009;Chavaillaz et al 2013;Rojas 2013) and general climatologic features (Braconnot et al 2007a, b;Otto-Bliesner et al 2009;Wang et al (2013b)) responding to the LGM conditions using the PMIP datasets. However, little has been done concerning the changes of the monsoon precipitation during the LGM, especially in the global perspectives.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum: a multi-model study

2015

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resulting in a general weakening of the GM precipitation and reduction of GM domain. The reduced hemispheric difference in seasonal variation of insolation may contribute to the weakened GM intensity. The changed land-ocean configuration in the vicinity of the Maritime Continent, along with the presence of the ice sheets and lower greenhouse gas concentration, result in strengthened land-ocean and North-South hemispheric thermal contrasts, leading to the unique strengthened Australian monsoon. Although some of the results are consistent with the proxy data, uncertainties remain in different models. More comparison is needed between proxy data and model experiments to better understand the changes of the GM during the LGM.

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“…The annual mean surface air temperature is 3 to Correspondence to: T. Takemura (toshi@riam.kyushu-u.ac.jp) 6 K lower on the global mean at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which is about twenty-one thousands years ago, than in the present climate (Jouzel et al, 1993;Kucera et al, 2005;Masson-Delmotte et al, 2005;Wu et al, 2007;Otto-Bliesner et al, 2009). It is regionally about 3 and 10 K lower over the tropics and southern Europe, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A simulation of the global distribution and radiative forcing of soil dust aerosols at the Last Glacial Maximum

et al. 2009

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Abstract.In this study an integrated simulation of the global distribution and the radiative forcing of soil dust aerosols at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is performed with an aerosol climate model, SPRINTARS. It is compared with another simulation for the present climate condition. The global total emission flux of soil dust aerosols at the LGM is simulated to be about 2.4 times as large as that in the present climate, and the simulated deposition flux is in general agreement with estimations from ice core and marine sediment samplings though it appears to be underestimated over the Antarctic. The calculated direct radiative forcings of soil dust aerosols at the LGM is close to zero at the tropopause and −0.4 W m −2 at the surface. These radiative forcings are about twice as large as those in the present climate. SPRINT-ARS also includes the microphysical parameterizations of the cloud-aerosol interaction both for liquid water and ice crystals, which affect the radiation budget. The positive radiative forcing from the indirect effect of soil dust aerosols is mainly caused by their properties to act as ice nuclei. This effect is simulated to be smaller (−0.9 W m −2 ) at the LGM than in the present. It is suggested that atmospheric dust might contribute to the cold climate during the glacial periods both through the direct and indirect effects, relative to the interglacial periods.

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A comparison of PMIP2 model simulations and the MARGO proxy reconstruction for tropical sea surface temperatures at last glacial maximum

Cited by 132 publications

References 60 publications

How warm was the last interglacial? New model–data comparisons

How warm was the last interglacial? New model–data comparisons

Global monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum: a multi-model study

A simulation of the global distribution and radiative forcing of soil dust aerosols at the Last Glacial Maximum

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