A comparison of mapped estimates of long-term runoff in the northeast United States

Bishop, Gary D.; Church, M. Robbins; Aber, John D.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Ollinger, Scott V.; Daly, Christopher

doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(98)00113-9

Cited by 15 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The model, described in detail by Neilson (1995), has been applied in earlier studies for modeling runoff and vegetation patterns of the United States (Bachelet et al 1998;Bishop et al 1998) and assessing the impacts of climate change globally (Neilson 1993b;Neilson and Marks 1994) and in North America Neilson 1993b;Neilson and Drapek 1998;Scott et al 2002). MAPSS simulates equilibrium runoff, evapotranspiration, LAI, and potential vegetation types (trees, shrubs, and grasses) as a function of climate (monthly means of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and vapor pressure) and soils (column depth and texture).…”

Section: B Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Potential Equilibrium States of Vegetation and Terrestrial Water Cycle of Mesoamerica under Climate Change Scenarios*

Imbach

Molina

Locatelli

et al. 2012

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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The likelihood and magnitude of the impacts of climate change on potential vegetation and the water cycle in Mesoamerica is evaluated. Mesoamerica is a global biodiversity hotspot with highly diverse topographic and climatic conditions and is among the tropical regions with the highest expected changes in precipitation and temperature under future climate scenarios. The biogeographic soil-vegetation-atmosphere model Mapped Atmosphere Plant Soil System (MAPSS) was used for simulating the integrated changes in leaf area index (LAI), vegetation types (grass, shrubs, and trees), evapotranspiration, and runoff at the end of the twenty-first century. Uncertainty was estimated as the likelihood of changes in vegetation and water cycle under three ensembles of model runs, one for each of the groups of greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low, intermediate, and high emissions), for a total of 136 runs generated with 23 general circulation models (GCMs). LAI is likely to decrease over 77%-89% of the region, depending on climate scenario groups, showing that potential vegetation will likely shift from humid to dry types. Accounting for potential effects of CO 2 on water use efficiency significantly decreased impacts on LAI. Runoff will decrease across the region even in areas where precipitation increases (even under increased water use efficiency), as temperature change will increase evapotranspiration. Higher emission scenarios show lower uncertainty (higher likelihood) in modeled impacts. Although the projection spread is high for future precipitation, the impacts of climate change on vegetation and water cycle are predicted with relatively low uncertainty.

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Section: B Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Potential Equilibrium States of Vegetation and Terrestrial Water Cycle of Mesoamerica under Climate Change Scenarios*

Imbach

Molina

Locatelli

et al. 2012

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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“…There have been several efforts to estimate individual water budget components at large spatial scales, although estimating a component in isolation has the disadvantage of potentially exceeding constraints imposed by precipitation or the other budget components. Of these efforts, some have used empirical regression techniques where equations were developed from and calibrated to a set of measurements (Bishop et al, 1998;Vogel et al, 1999;Sanford and Selnick, 2013). The approach of developing regressions for annual-scale total streamflow was followed by Vogel et al (1999), with calibrations for each of 18 Water Resources Regions in the United States (U.S.).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Annual Estimates of Recharge, Quick‐Flow Runoff, and Evapotranspiration for the Contiguous U.S. Using Empirical Regression Equations

Reitz

Sanford

Senay

et al. 2017

J American Water Resour Assoc

101

125

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This study presents new data‐driven, annual estimates of the division of precipitation into the recharge, quick‐flow runoff, and evapotranspiration (ET) water budget components for 2000‐2013 for the contiguous United States (CONUS). The algorithms used to produce these maps ensure water budget consistency over this broad spatial scale, with contributions from precipitation influx attributed to each component at 800 m resolution. The quick‐flow runoff estimates for the contribution to the rapidly varying portion of the hydrograph are produced using data from 1,434 gaged watersheds, and depend on precipitation, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, and surficial geology type. Evapotranspiration estimates are produced from a regression using water balance data from 679 gaged watersheds and depend on land cover, temperature, and precipitation. The quick‐flow and ET estimates are combined to calculate recharge as the remainder of precipitation. The ET and recharge estimates are checked against independent field data, and the results show good agreement. Comparisons of recharge estimates with groundwater extraction data show that in 15% of the country, groundwater is being extracted at rates higher than the local recharge. These maps of the internally consistent water budget components of recharge, quick‐flow runoff, and ET, being derived from and tested against data, are expected to provide reliable first‐order estimates of these quantities across the CONUS, even where field measurements are sparse.

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“…Besides, rather than estimating one single characteristic, hydrologists may simulate the whole hydrological behavior over the domain applying lumped rainfall-runoff models (Jutman, 1995) or more physically based models (Bishop et al, 1998). Several difficulties may restrict the application of this approach:…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping runoff based on hydro-stochastic approach for the Huaihe River Basin, China

2011

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Theoretical difficulties for mapping and for estimating river regime characteristics in a large-scale basin remain because of the nature of the variable under study: river flows are related to a specific area, i.e. the drainage basin, and are hierarchically organized in space through the river network with upstream-downstream dependencies. Another limitation is there are not enough gauge stations in developing countries. This presentation aims at developing the hydro-stochastic approach for producing choropleth maps of average annual runoff and computing mean discharge along the main river network for a large-scale basin. The approach applied to mean annual runoff is based on geostatistical interpolation procedures coupled with water balance and data uncertainty analyses. It is proved by an application in the upstream at Bengbu in the Huaihe River Basin, a typical large-scale basin in China. Hydro-stochasitic approach in a first step interpolates to a regular grid net and in a second step the grid values are integrated along rivers. The interpolation scheme includes a constraint to be able to account for the lateral water balance along the rivers. Grid runoff map with 10 km × 10 km resolution and the discharge map along the river with the 1 km basic length unit are the main results in this study. This kind of statistic approach can be widely used because it avoids the complexity of hydrological models and does not depend on the meteorological data.

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A comparison of mapped estimates of long-term runoff in the northeast United States

Cited by 15 publications

References 29 publications

Modeling Potential Equilibrium States of Vegetation and Terrestrial Water Cycle of Mesoamerica under Climate Change Scenarios*

Modeling Potential Equilibrium States of Vegetation and Terrestrial Water Cycle of Mesoamerica under Climate Change Scenarios*

Annual Estimates of Recharge, Quick‐Flow Runoff, and Evapotranspiration for the Contiguous U.S. Using Empirical Regression Equations

Mapping runoff based on hydro-stochastic approach for the Huaihe River Basin, China

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