A comparison of landscape fuel treatment strategies to mitigate wildland fire risk in the urban interface and preserve old forest structure

Ager, Alan A.; Vaillant, Nicole M.; Finney, Mark A.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2010.01.032

Cited by 261 publications

(210 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Similar high severity fires have been reported in nearby forests by Collins et al (2014). Overall, our results are consistent with other studies that show the placement of treatments nearest to assets provides the greatest reduction in risk (Safford et al 2009;Ager et al 2010;Penman et al 2014).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…A common approach is to compare the change in risk between management scenarios using a response group, often human assets and communities (Scott et al 2016) or threatened species (Thompson et al 2011b;Ager et al 2012). Very few studies have considered multiple assets in an explicit risk trade-off process (although see Ager et al 2010;Thompson et al 2011a;Salis et al 2013;Driscoll et al 2016). In application, few management agencies get to adopt such an approach to risk management and planning.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Is there an inherent conflict in managing fire for people and conservation?

Bentley

Penman

2017

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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Abstract. Wildfires are a natural disturbance in many ecosystems, creating challenges for land management agencies who need to simultaneously reduce risk to people and maintain ecological values. Here we use the PHOENIX RapidFire fire behaviour simulator to compare fuel treatment strategies that meet the twin objectives of reducing wildfire risk to human settlements and a fire sensitive endangered species, the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) in south-eastern Australia. The local koala population is in decline and a conservation management plan is being prepared to exclude wildfire for a 10-year period to assist with population recovery. Twelve scenarios developed by the land management agencies were compared using four indicators: wildfire size; burn probability; impact from exposure to fire; and treatment cost. Compared with the current risk setting, three treatment scenarios were found to reduce wildfire size and burn probability concurrently to both people and koalas. These strategies worked by increasing the landscape area treated, which came with increased financial cost. However, the impact from exposure to fire for both property and koala habitat remains high. Additional complementary strategies beyond landscape fuel reductions are needed to reduce impact from exposure in the event of a wildfire.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is there an inherent conflict in managing fire for people and conservation?

Bentley

Penman

2017

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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“…Fire intensity is relative to the spread direction, and thus quantifying intensity for a particular point needs to consider all possible arrival directions and their probabilities. The conditional flame length (CFL), or the probability weighted flame length given a fire occurs (Scott, 2006;Equation 1) is used for this purpose, and is a statistical expectation, summing over burn intensity probabilities multiplied by the midpoints of the corresponding flame length category (Ager et al, 2010).…”

Section: Wildfire Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Science and Opportunity of Wildfire Risk Assessment

Thompson¹,

Ager²,

Finney³

et al. 2012

Novel Approaches and Their Applications in Risk Assessment

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“…thinning, pruning, mechanical treatments, prescribed burning) (Ager et al 2010) or elimination of potential ignition sources (e.g. activities of the public), fire suppression (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies focus on the analysis of past house losses, either concentrating on the documentation of the events (Lynch 2004;Xanthopoulos 2008) or providing in-depth analysis and discussion (Gibbons et al 2012;Syphard et al 2012). Other studies use spatial simulation of fires (Ager et al 2010;Salis et al 2013;Mitsopoulos et al 2015;Platanianaki et al 2015). Only few studies compare model predictions with real-world data (Cohen 2000(Cohen , 2004.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic prediction of wildfire economic losses to housing in Cyprus using Bayesian network analysis

Papakosta

Xanthopoulos²,

Straub

2017

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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Abstract. Loss prediction models are an important part of wildfire risk assessment, but have received only limited attention in the scientific literature. Such models can support decision-making on preventive measures targeting fuels or potential ignition sources, on fire suppression, on mitigation of consequences and on effective allocation of funds. This paper presents a probabilistic model for predicting wildfire housing loss at the mesoscale (1 km 2 ) using Bayesian network (BN) analysis. The BN enables the construction of an integrated model based on causal relationships among the influencing parameters jointly with the associated uncertainties. Input data and models are gathered from literature and expert knowledge to overcome the lack of housing loss data in the study area. Numerical investigations are carried out with spatiotemporal datasets for the Mediterranean island of Cyprus. The BN is coupled with a geographic information system (GIS) and the resulting estimated house damages for a given fire hazard are shown in maps. The BN model can be attached to a wildfire hazard model to determine wildfire risk in a spatially explicit manner. The developed model is specific to areas with house characteristics similar to those found in Cyprus, but the general methodology is transferable to any other area, as well as other damages.

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A comparison of landscape fuel treatment strategies to mitigate wildland fire risk in the urban interface and preserve old forest structure

Cited by 261 publications

References 62 publications

Is there an inherent conflict in managing fire for people and conservation?

Is there an inherent conflict in managing fire for people and conservation?

The Science and Opportunity of Wildfire Risk Assessment

Probabilistic prediction of wildfire economic losses to housing in Cyprus using Bayesian network analysis

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