A Comparison of Forecasting the Results of Road Transportation Needs

Abstract

Determining the size and quality of transport needs would not be possible without adequate forecasting based on the sales volume or demand for this service from the past periods. Traditional forecasting methods use econometric models that may be subject to serious errors. The use of the methods taking into account the variability of the studied phenomena or more advanced mathematical methods enables to minimize the error. Various methods of artificial intelligence such as a neural network, fuzzy sets, genetic algorithms, etc., have been recently successfully applied. The aim of this paper is to compare three forecasting methods that can be used for predicting the volume of road freight. The article deals with the effectiveness of three prediction methods, namely Winters method for seasonal problems -a multiplicative version, harmonic analysis and harmonic analysis aided by the artificial immune system. The effectiveness of prediction was counted using MAPE errors (main average percentage error). The results of calculations were compared and the best example was presented.

Key Development Factors of the Transit and Transport Potential of Kazakhstan

“…In this context, the following directions of further development of the transit and transport potential of Kazakhstan, discussed earlier in works [4,9], are seen as still relevant: -reducing the physical and non-physical barriers to the promotion of transit flows through the territory of Kazakhstan, which requires further analysis of the technical condition of the main networks and crossings on the borders of the Republic of Kazakhstan, to identify narrow places that reduce the capacity and speed of the vehicles, their conformity to international standards and requirements, the need to introduce new technologies, modernisation and subsequent maintenance [13,15]; -improvement of the transport investment system which will enable the creation of favourable conditions for the participation of investors in projects for the maintenance, renewal and expansion of the transport infrastructure; -acceleration of the modernisation of the transport infrastructure that requires the development of measures to support domestic transport organisations to stimulate the renovation of vehicles; -forecasting the development of the transport network is also important. The methods outlined in the article [16] could be used for this purpose; -coordination of the principles of the tariff, tax and customs policies of the states in the transport sphere for the formation of a common transport space and a common market for transport services; -regular study of traffic flow to stabilise and increase transit cargo flow through the territory of Kazakhstan and assessment of the potential transit through the territory of Kazakhstan to develop measures to attract it; -improvement of transport safety system.…”

Comparison of forecasting methods for freight transportation by Polish railways

“…Cargo, whose share in the transported freight mass in 2017 amounted to 44.5%, whereas in the realized transported work it is 51.9%, efficiently transport loads on electrified lines, while it is struggling with serious shortages of diesel locomotives, necessary for pulling heavy trains with coal or handling aggregate ramps. Similarly, the 52 W. KAMIŃSKI Pollack Periodica 14,2019,2 shortages of the rolling stock appear in the case of wagons. For several years, the volume of transported freight mass by railway in Poland has been increasing, which causes growth in the demand for rolling stock.…”

Data Mining Workspace as an Optimization Prediction Technique for Solving Transport Problems

“…The exponential method as operation method is used for smoothing and forecasting of time series values [15]. This method employs a linear combination.…”