A comparison of extreme precipitation event frequency and magnitude using a high‐resolution rain gage network and NOAA Atlas 14 across Delaware

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events are arguably one of the most important natural hazards in many areas of the globe, impacting nearly every societal sector. In the Northeastern United States, extreme precipitation events have been shown to be increasing with several recent events garnering national attention (i.e., Ellicott City Maryland 2018; Tropical Storm Lee 2011). The NOAA Atlas 14 product is the nation's standard for estimating the magnitude and frequency of site‐specific extreme precipitation events, containing both precipitation frequency estimates, as well as associated confidence intervals. The Atlas uses surface stations, primarily from the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program, and statistical methodologies to provide point‐based precipitation exceedance probability estimates for several durations and potential recurrence intervals. Unfortunately, the number and quality of Cooperative Observer sites varies greatly over space and time. This research compares observed precipitation extremes from a high‐resolution statewide mesonet to those estimated by the Atlas 14 product for a 10‐year recurrence interval at several precipitation durations. Results of the analysis indicate that Atlas 14 underestimates the number and magnitude of extreme precipitation events across the state of Delaware at longer event durations (360‐ to 1,440‐min). At shorter durations (5‐ to 240‐min) the Atlas 14 estimates are more closely aligned with the observations from the high‐resolution precipitation network. These results suggest that caution should be exercised when using Atlas 14 estimates for engineering standards and hydrologic studies, especially for longer duration events. Therefore, a more rapid update cycle for revision of the Atlas 14 product should be considered, as a changing climate regime may be responsible for the differences identified in this research.

Assessing the Impacts of Extreme Precipitation Change on Vegetation Activity

“…This study analyzed their relationship by linking the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events simultaneously. This indicates a necessity to pay more attention to the combined effects of the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events when assessing impacts on vegetation activity [59,60].…”

Rainfall Frequency Analysis Based on Long‐Term High‐Resolution Radar Rainfall Fields: Spatial Heterogeneities and Temporal Nonstationarities

“…(2007) and Leathers et al. (2020)), point to the utility of long radar rainfall data sets as a supplemental source of information for rainfall frequency analyses.…”

“…Legislation passed by the US Congress in 2022 mandated that NOAA update rainfall frequency estimates for the US, accounting for the effects of climate change. The limitations of rain gauge networks, as detailed above (see also Daly et al (2007) and Leathers et al (2020)), point to the utility of long radar rainfall data sets as a supplemental source of information for rainfall frequency analyses.…”

“…The sparse density of sub-daily rain gauges in many regions has stimulated research examining the relationship between daily and sub-daily rainfall extremes (e.g., DeGaetano and Tran (2022)). Leathers et al (2020) note that for the state of Delaware, which shares a boundary with Maryland, two hourly stations are used for NOAA Atlas 14 rainfall frequency estimates, with only one station having sub-hourly observations (used for 5, 15 and 30 min rainfall frequency analyses); 12 stations are available for rainfall frequency analyses at daily time scale. In addition to the sparse density of sub-daily gauges, short record lengths and incomplete records are common problems with sub-daily rain gauge data (see, for example, Bonin et al (2016)).…”