A comparison of bioclimatic potential in two global regions during the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century

Abstract

Changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere have been taking place during the latter part of the twentieth century and the early part of the twenty-first century. In the Belgorod region of Southwest Russia, this has been manifested in the more frequent occurrence of stationary anticyclones, including those referred to as blocking anticyclones, especially during the summer season. Also, there has been a general increase in regional temperatures during the growing season over the period mentioned above, and combined with the more frequent occurrence of anticyclones has led to less humid conditions. In the Missouri region of the Central USA, variability in the circulation on differing time scales within the Eastern Pacific plays a strong role in the conditions that impact the growing season. As a result of changes in climate and climate variability, the benefit to agriculture during this period produces mixed results for both regions. This work will evaluate the growing season conditions using indexes that combine growing season temperature and precipitation such as the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) and the bioclimatic potential (BCP). Also, the interannual variability of these indexes in both regions was examined. In the Belgorod region, the increase in temperature combined with little change in precipitation produced mixed results in interpreting these indexes. This was accompanied by more variable conditions as revealed by these indexes in the early twenty-first century. In the Missouri region, there was little trend in either index over the time period and the tendency was toward less climatic variability in the HTC and BCP.

Sugar Beet Harvests under Modern Climatic Conditions in the Belgorod Region (Southwest Russia)

“…In addition to the BCP, the moisture index in [17] was also calculated. Reference [14] used both of these quantities to study and compare yield potential for the central United States and southwest Russia. Additional material used in this research was the catalog of Northern Hemisphere (NH) circulation regime classifications (called essential circulation mechanisms or modes-ECM) as proposed by [18] in 1946 and used widely in later studies (e.g., [17,19,20]) and discussed in detail by [20][21][22].…”

“…The Hydrothermal Coefficient (HTC) is also an indicator of moisture content published by the Soviet climatologist G. T. Selyaninov [23]. The HTC is determined by the ratio of the precipitation amount (r) (mm) during the period with average daily air temperatures above 10 • C to the sum of temperature ( T*) during the same time-period (multiplied by 0.1), that is: The HTC is one of the indicators of agricultural growth in different parts of the world (e.g., [14] and [24][25][26]). As an important agro-climatic indicator that defines the resource and energy demands of crops, the period when the daily mean temperature greater than 10°C is a viable baseline because it describes the period of active vegetation for a majority of plants, including sugar beets.…”

“…The moisture index is actually part of the calculation of the BCP (2a). For this reason, we use the BCP baseline for our region (reference [27]), and this baseline can be found in [14]. BCP is a function of complex meteorological factors that determine the potential growth and development for plants in order to evaluate the agricultural productivity of climate.…”

“…According to references [14] and [24], the maximum biological productivity is determined by the total influence of heat, moisture, and soil fertility. For a particular region with similar soil conditions, the BCP index can be reduced to a function of heat and moisture expressed as a ratio.…”

“…References [10][11][12] examine climatological factors such as drought, sowing time, and light absorption on sugar beet yields in particular. An assessment of these variables is necessary for optimal crop allocation and production planning [13][14][15].…”