A comparative survey between cascade correlation neural network (CCNN) and feedforward neural network (FFNN) machine learning models for forecasting suspended sediment concentration

Abstract

Suspended sediment concentration prediction is critical for the design of reservoirs, dams, rivers ecosystems, various operations of aquatic resource structure, environmental safety, and water management. In this study, two different machine models, namely the cascade correlation neural network (CCNN) and feedforward neural network (FFNN) were applied to predict daily-suspended sediment concentration (SSC) at Simga and Jondhara stations in Sheonath basin, India. Daily-suspended sediment concentration and discharge data from 2010 to 2015 were collected and used to develop the model to predict suspended sediment concentration. The developed models were evaluated using statistical indices like Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NES), root mean square error (RMSE), Willmott’s index of agreement (WI), and Legates–McCabe’s index (LM), supplemented by a scatter plot, density plots, histograms and Taylor diagram for graphical representation. The developed model was evaluated and compared with CCNN and FFNN. Nine input combinations were explored using different lag-times for discharge (Qt-n) and suspended sediment concentration (St-n) as input variables, with the current suspended sediment concentration as the desired output, to develop CCNN and FFNN models. The CCNN4 model with 4 lagged inputs (St-1, St-2, St-3, St-4) outperformed the other developed models with the lowest RMSE = 95.02 mg/l and the highest NES = 0.0.662, WI = 0.890 and LM = 0.668 for the Jondhara Station while the same CCNN4 model secure as the best with the lowest RMSE = 53.71 mg/l and the highest NES = 0.785, WI = 0.936 and LM = 0.788 for the Simga Station. The result shows the CCNN model was better than the FFNN model for predicting daily-suspended sediment at both stations in the Sheonath basin, India. Overall, CCNN showed better forecasting potential for suspended sediment concentration compared to FFNN at both stations, demonstrating their applicability for hydrological forecasting with complex relationships.