A comparative study of non-deep learning, deep learning, and ensemble learning methods for sunspot number prediction

Abstract

Solar activity has significant impacts on human activities and health. One most commonly used measure of solar activity is the sunspot number. This paper compares three important non-deep learning models, four popular deep learning models, and their five ensemble models in forecasting sunspot numbers. Our proposed ensemble model XGBoost-DL, which uses XGBoost as a two-level nonlinear ensemble method to combine the deep learning models, achieves the best forecasting performance among all considered models and the NASA's forecast. Our XGBoost-DL forecasts a peak sunspot number of 133.