A Comparative Study of Models for the Construction Duration Prediction in Highway Road Projects of India

Abstract

Predicting the duration of construction projects with acceptable accuracy is a problem for contractors and researchers. Numerous researchers and tools are involved in sorting out this problem. The aim of the study is to predict the construction duration using four analytical tools as an approach. The success of construction projects in regard to time depends on various factors such as selection of contractors, consultants, cost of the projects, quality of the projects, the quantity of the projects, environmental factors, etc. Presently available commercial tools in the market are not designed as universally common and concerned. Every tool performs well in a particular situation. The prediction of India’s highway road projects duration is the biggest construction issue in the country due to various reasons. To overcome this problem, the methodology of the paper adopts various strategies to find suitable tools to predict the highway road projects’ duration, in which it classifies and analyzes the collected data. As a part of this work, the details of 363 government infrastructure projects (traditional procurement) were collected from 2000 to 2018. The present study also adopts various tools for duration prediction such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), smoothing techniques, time series analysis, and Bromilow’s time–cost (BTC) model. The results of the study recommend smoothing techniques with a constant value of 0.3, which gave the remarkable very small error of 1.2%, and its outcomes become even better when compared to other techniques.

Research on the factors of extremely short construction period under the sufficient resources based on Grey-DEMATEL-ISM

“…The key factors obtained by the DEMATEL model coincide with the fundamental factors obtained by the ISM, which fully demonstrates the importance of the natural environment as an influencing factor. At present, there is evidence that the ecological environment occupies an important position in the construction of the whole engineering project [ 32 , 44 , 52 ], especially as the government’s attention to the ecological environment increases year by year [ 65 , 66 ], achieving rapid construction and building without damaging the ecological environment has become one of the research directions in the new situation in recent years. In addition, the type of structure and the total number of floors have a great influence in achieving a fast construction process.…”

“…Basem Al Khatib et al [ 26 ]in reviewing the factors leading to the delay of mataf expansion project, found the existence of other inevitable factors leading to the delay and divided them into demolition stage and construction project. Some studies have also explored the influencing factors of construction period indirectly by using prediction model [ 27 – 29 ], multiple linear regression model [ 30 , 31 ], smoothing technology [ 32 ] and others.…”

Research on residential building duration prediction model based on mean clustering and neural network

“…Construction project duration and cost are also related, the classical duration-cost model is T= KC B , T is duration; C is cost; K and B are coefficients to be determined (Bromilow et al, 1980), the coefficients to be determined vary according to the project type (Kaka and Price, 1991), and the later improved duration-cost model, which introduces the variables of total floor area and number of total floors ( Chan and Chan, 2004). In addition, the choice of forecasting tools, the effect of cognitive uncertainty, contractor management capability, frequent design changes and initial over-optimism on the part of the owner can also affect construction duration (Ahmadu et al, 2020;Velumani et al, 2021;Doloi et al, 2012). Understanding the interrelationships and the degree of influence of the factors affecting the duration can help decision makers and managers of construction projects to effectively master the key factors with sufficient resources (Peng et al, 2022).…”

Risk Factors That Lead to Time and Cost Overruns of Building Projects in Saudi Arabia

“…However, there is a lack of research on identifying the risks and categorising them according to different types of projects [14]. Recent studies focused on specific types of projects such as oil and gas [15,16], manufacturing and buildings [17], and road projects [18,19], there is a need to increase the research in identifying the risk factors in different projects types and to assess the changes in risk factors importance and probability [20]. It is important to address this research gap, because these can have potentially serious consequences, such as cost and time overruns, and can add additional pressure to construction projects [21,22].…”