A comparative framework to analyze convergence on Twitter electoral conversations

Abstract

Literature on social networks and elections has focused on predicting electoral outcomes rather than on understanding how the discussions between users evolve over time. As a result, most studies focus on a single election and few comparative studies exist. In this article, a framework to analyze Twitter conversations about the election candidates is proposed. Using DeGroot’s consensus model (an assumption that all users are attempting to persuade others to talk about a candidate), this framework is useful to identify the structure and strength of connections of the mention networks on the months before an election day. It also helps to make comparisons between elections and identify patterns in different contexts. In concrete, it was found that elections in which the incumbent was running have slower convergence (more closed communities with fewer links between them) and that there is no difference between parliamentary and presidential elections. Therefore, there is evidence that the political system and the role of the incumbent in the election influences the way conversations on Twitter occur.