A comparative assessment of flood susceptibility modeling using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Analysis and Machine Learning Methods

Khosravi, Khabat; Shahabi, Himan; Pham, Binh Thai; Adamowski, Jan; Shirzadi, Ataollah; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Dou, Jie; Ly, Haï‐Bang; Gróf, Gyula; Loc, Ho Huu; Hong, Haoyuan; Chapi, Kamran; Prakash, Indra

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.073

Cited by 447 publications

(179 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Machine learning techniques have recently gained good attention among the environmental modeling research community as they are advantageous in efficiently capturing the complex relationship between the environmental predictors and the response, such as flood [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41], wildfire [42], sinkhole [43], drought [44], gully erosion [45,46], groundwater [47][48][49] and land/ground subsidence [27], and landslide in this case [3,13,[50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57]. In due course, researches have also attempted to improve the prediction accuracy and the interpretability of the models through applying various decision-trees machine learning algorithms such as chi-square automatic interaction detector; quick, unbiased and efficient statistical tree [58]; J48 decision trees [59]; ID3 decision trees [60]; random forests [61]; classification and regression trees [62]; alternating decision trees [63]; reduced error pruning trees [3]; naïve Bayes [35,53]; naïve Bayes tree [13,64]; kernel logistic regression [37]; logistic model tree [38,…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment by Novel Hybrid Machine Learning Algorithms

et al. 2019

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Landslides have multidimensional effects on the socioeconomic as well as environmental conditions of the impacted areas. The aim of this study is the spatial prediction of landslide using hybrid machine learning models including bagging (BA), random subspace (RS) and rotation forest (RF) with alternating decision tree (ADTree) as base classifier in the northern part of the Pithoragarh district, Uttarakhand, Himalaya, India. To construct the database, ten conditioning factors and a total of 103 landslide locations with a ratio of 70/30 were used. The significant factors were determined by chi-square attribute evaluation (CSEA) technique. The validity of the hybrid models was assessed by true positive rate (TP Rate), false positive rate (FP Rate), recall (sensitivity), precision, F-measure and area under the receiver operatic characteristic curve (AUC). Results concluded that land cover was the most important factor while curvature had no effect on landslide occurrence in the study area and it was removed from the modelling process. Additionally, results indicated that although all ensemble models enhanced the power prediction of the ADTree classifier (AUC training = 0.859; AUC validation = 0.813); however, the RS ensemble model (AUC training = 0.883; AUC validation = 0.842) outperformed and outclassed the RF (AUC training = 0.871; AUC validation = 0.840), and the BA (AUC training = 0.865; AUC validation = 0.836) ensemble model. The obtained results would be helpful for recognizing the landslide prone areas in future to better manage and decrease the damage and negative impacts on the environment.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment by Novel Hybrid Machine Learning Algorithms

et al. 2019

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“…One of the main limitations of the current study was the use of Google Earth, rather than a field survey, for the identification of non-flooding points, though some prior researchers that had done the same, such as Tehrany et al [15,64], Khosravi et al [16] and Khosravi et al [27]. Additionally, LIDAR DEM, with its high resolution, would have likely affected the results and prediction power of the models positively; thus, it is recommended that further studies employ LIDAR instead of ASTER GDEM.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Spatial Modeling in Northern Iran Using Remote Sensing and GIS: A Comparison between Evidential Belief Functions and Its Ensemble with a Multivariate Logistic Regression Model

et al. 2019

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Floods are some of the most dangerous and most frequent natural disasters occurring in the northern region of Iran. Flooding in this area frequently leads to major urban, financial, anthropogenic, and environmental impacts. Therefore, the development of flood susceptibility maps used to identify flood zones in the catchment is necessary for improved flood management and decision making. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of an Evidential Belief Function (EBF) model, both as an individual model and in combination with Logistic Regression (LR) methods, in preparing flood susceptibility maps for the Haraz Catchment in the Mazandaran Province, Iran. The spatial database created consisted of a flood inventory, altitude, slope angle, plan curvature, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Stream Power Index (SPI), distance from river, rainfall, geology, land use, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the region. After obtaining the required information from various sources, 151 of 211 recorded flooding points were used for model training and preparation of the flood susceptibility maps. For validation, the results of the models were compared to the 60 remaining flooding points. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn, and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) was calculated to obtain the accuracy of the flood susceptibility maps prepared through success rates (using training data) and prediction rates (using validation data). The AUC results indicated that the EBF, EBF from LR, EBF-LR (enter), and EBF-LR (stepwise) success rates were 94.61%, 67.94%, 86.45%, and 56.31%, respectively, and the prediction rates were 94.55%, 66.41%, 83.19%, and 52.98%, respectively. The results showed that the EBF model had the highest accuracy in predicting flood susceptibility within the catchment, in which 15% of the total areas were located in high and very high susceptibility classes, and 62% were located in low and very low susceptibility classes. These results can be used for the planning and management of areas vulnerable to floods in order to prevent flood-induced damage; the results may also be useful for natural disaster assessment.In recent years, many statistical and probabilistic models have been tested to prepare flood susceptibility maps [9,10]. Geographic Information System (GIS) has been used as an effective tool for spatial analysis and data manipulation due to its ability to handle large amounts of spatial data [11]. Specifically, the combination of statistical and probabilistic models with Remote Sensing (RS) and GIS has been widely used by different researchers [1,12]. Additionally, some scientists and researchers have studied natural disasters, specifically floods and FSM, with the help of RS and GIS, using different models such as Decision-Tree (DT) [6,13], Support Vector Machine (SVM) [14,15], Frequency Ratio (FR) [16,17], Evidential Belief Function (EBF) [18][19][20], EBF-AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) [21], Logistic Regression (LR) [22], Shannon's entropy and...

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“…ACC is the ratio of the rate number of correct predictions and the total number of predictions [88]. RMSE represents the difference between data observations and data estimates [89][90][91][92][93][94][95][96][97][98][99][100][101][102][103]. Equations for the different measures are given below:…”

Section: Validation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Study of Kernel Logistic Regression, Radial Basis Function Classifier, Multinomial Naïve Bayes, and Logistic Model Tree for Flash Flood Susceptibility Mapping

Pham

Phong

Nguyen

et al. 2020

Water

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Risk of flash floods is currently an important problem in many parts of Vietnam. In this study, we used four machine-learning methods, namely Kernel Logistic Regression (KLR), Radial Basis Function Classifier (RBFC), Multinomial Naïve Bayes (NBM), and Logistic Model Tree (LMT) to generate flash flood susceptibility maps at the minor part of Nghe An province of the Center region (Vietnam) where recurrent flood problems are being experienced. Performance of these four methods was evaluated to select the best method for flash flood susceptibility mapping. In the model studies, ten flash flood conditioning factors, namely soil, slope, curvature, river density, flow direction, distance from rivers, elevation, aspect, land use, and geology, were chosen based on topography and geo-environmental conditions of the site. For the validation of models, the area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under Curve (AUC), and various statistical indices were used. The results indicated that performance of all the models is good for generating flash flood susceptibility maps (AUC = 0.983–0.988). However, performance of LMT model is the best among the four methods (LMT: AUC = 0.988; KLR: AUC = 0.985; RBFC: AUC = 0.984; and NBM: AUC = 0.983). The present study would be useful for the construction of accurate flash flood susceptibility maps with the objectives of identifying flood-susceptible areas/zones for proper flash flood risk management.

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A comparative assessment of flood susceptibility modeling using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Analysis and Machine Learning Methods

Cited by 447 publications

References 53 publications

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment by Novel Hybrid Machine Learning Algorithms

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment by Novel Hybrid Machine Learning Algorithms

Flood Spatial Modeling in Northern Iran Using Remote Sensing and GIS: A Comparison between Evidential Belief Functions and Its Ensemble with a Multivariate Logistic Regression Model

A Comparative Study of Kernel Logistic Regression, Radial Basis Function Classifier, Multinomial Naïve Bayes, and Logistic Model Tree for Flash Flood Susceptibility Mapping

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