“…The basic concepts, terms, and assumptions of the analytical framework that is used to construct causal explanations [ 28 ] of the Drivers-Vulnerability-Actions interactions ( Figure 1 ) causing the observed Climate-Sensitive Disasters and their impacts on human wellbeing to be as follows (based on [ 1 , 17 , 25 , 26 ]): - External climate drivers (threats) are (assumed) uncontrollable on the short- and medium-term (e.g., 2025–2040) at the local level, whereas socioeconomic driving determinants are (considered) (almost) to be uncontrollable on the short-term, but potentially modifiable [ 17 ];
- The drivers of this system are external: climate change and extreme weather events (assumed uncontrollable on the medium-term), and socio-economic determinants of public health (supposed modifiable on the short- to medium-term); internal: knowledge and values; human safety, public health infrastructure, and investment (assumed as controllable on the short-term but dependent on the level of socioeconomic development, perception of risks, and political willingness);
- The vulnerability is composed by (1) the exposure (climatic and geographical characteristics, e.g., climate type/sub-types, location, and population density) [ 1 , 25 ], assumed as being uncontrollable on the short- to medium-term, (2) the sensitivity (e.g., % of population affected by climate-hazards and their susceptibility [ 1 , 25 , 26 ]), and (3) the adaptability composed of the adaptive capacity and readiness [ 25 ]. The components ii and iii are moderately modifiable on the medium-term;
- The actions relate to the country-level decision-making level (anticipatory climate adaptation) that are both influenced by and influence the concepts and terms mentioned above.
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