A community convention for ecological forecasting: Output files and metadata version 1.0

Abstract

This paper summarizes the open community conventions developed by the Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI) for the common formatting and archiving of ecological forecasts and the metadata associated with these forecasts. Such open standards are intended to promote interoperability and facilitate forecast communication, distribution, validation, and synthesis. For output files, we first describe the convention conceptually in terms of global attributes, forecast dimensions, forecasted variables, and ancillary indicator variables. We then illustrate the application of this convention to the two file formats that are currently preferred by the EFI, netCDF (network common data form), and comma‐separated values (CSV), but note that the convention is extensible to future formats. For metadata, EFI's convention identifies a subset of conventional metadata variables that are required (e.g., temporal resolution and output variables) but focuses on developing a framework for storing information about forecast uncertainty propagation, data assimilation, and model complexity, which aims to facilitate cross‐forecast synthesis. The initial application of this convention expands upon the Ecological Metadata Language (EML), a commonly used metadata standard in ecology. To facilitate community adoption, we also provide a Github repository containing a metadata validator tool and several vignettes in R and Python on how to both write and read in the EFI standard. Lastly, we provide guidance on forecast archiving, making an important distinction between short‐term dissemination and long‐term forecast archiving, while also touching on the archiving of code and workflows. Overall, the EFI convention is a living document that can continue to evolve over time through an open community process.

Ten Simple Rules to build a Model Life Cycle

“…In ecology, for example, the Darwin core [46] and the Humboldt core [47] provide, respectively, standardized data representations for taxonomic and occurrence data. Metadata is also sometimes released in a format set by the Ecological Metadata Language [48], which provides a nomenclature for the description of ecological studies; recently, the Ecological Forecasting Initiative introduced a new superset of the Ecological Metadata Language to describe iterative forecasts [49]. These attempts at standardizing the communication of data formats and vocabularies are useful, as they remove ambiguities around the content of the dataset, and therefore facilitate cross-team and cross-eld collaborations.…”

Defining model complexity: An ecological perspective

“…Other practical complexities relate to the infrastructure to read input files. Ideally, input data that conform to community standards (e.g., CF-conventions for NetCDF-files, or more specifically for ecological forecasting the EFI community standards, Dietze et al, 2023) can reduce the complexity of required data processing or curation. Also, the different licenses of data can BOX 2 Facets of model complexity illustrated via an eco-epidemiological case study Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious prion disease affecting animals within the family Cervidae (e.g., deer), causing irreversible and fatal neurological damage.…”

Predicting Spring Phenology in Deciduous Broadleaf Forests: Neon Phenology Forecasting Community Challenge

“…Forecasts longer than 35 days were filtered out in this initial analysis. Submissions had to include uncertainty estimates and be submitted in the Ecological Forecasting Initiative forecast standard (Dietze et al, 2023).…”