A Combined Seasonal Mann–Kendall and Innovative Approach for the Trend Analysis of Streamflow Rate in Two Croatian Rivers

Abstract

Climate change profoundly impacts hydrological systems, particularly in regions such as Croatia, which is renowned for its diverse geography and climatic variability. This study examined the effect of climate change on streamflow rates in two Croatian rivers: Bednja and Gornja Dobra. Using seasonal Mann–Kendall (MK) tests, overall streamflow trends were evaluated. Additionally, innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA), innovative visualization for innovative trend analysis (IV-ITA), and Bayesian changepoint detection and time series decomposition (BEAST) algorithms were used to assess the trends’ magnitudes and transitions. The seasonal MK analysis identified significant decreasing trends, primarily during summer. The results of IPTA and IV-ITA revealed consistent decreasing trends throughout most months, with a notable increase in September, especially at high flow values. The rivers’ behavior differed between the first and second halves of the month. BEAST analysis detected abrupt changes, including earlier shifts (1951–1968) in the Bednja and more recent ones (2013–2015) in both the Bednja and, to a lesser extent, the Gornja Dobra rivers. This comprehensive approach enhances our understanding of long-term streamflow trends and short-term fluctuations induced by climate change.