A combined estimator using TEC and b-value for large earthquake prediction

Abstract

Ionospheric anomalies have been shown to occur a few days before several large earthquakes. The published works normally address examples limited in time (a single event or few of them) or space (a particular geographic area), so that a clear method based on these anomalies which consistently yields the place and magnitude of the forthcoming earthquake, anytime and anywhere on earth, has not been presented so far. The current research is aimed at prediction of large earthquakes, that is with magnitude Mw 7 or higher. It uses as data bank all significant earthquakes occurred worldwide in the period from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2018. The first purpose of the research is to improve the use of ionospheric anomalies in the form of TEC grids for earthquake prediction. A space-time TEC variation estimator especially designed for earthquake prediction will show the advantages with respect to the use of simple TEC values. Further, taking advantage of the well-known predictive abilities of the Gutenberg-Richter law's b-value, a combined estimator based on both TEC anomalies and b-values will be designed and shown to improve prediction performance even more.

Automated detection of discontinuities in EUREF permanent GNSS network stations due to earthquake events

“…The software tool has been made freely available to the public so that further examples of application may be found and analyzed by the interested readers. Some ideas for future work to improve the tool may include the application to the International GNSS Service (IGS) station network, so that the tool may be applicable to any earthquake event in the world, as well as the inclusion of additional estimates, either in the coordinate domain or related to new data, such as ionospheric anomalies or b-value anomalies, which may suggest preparatory stages of some earthquakes (Sugan et al 2014, Baselga 2020).…”

Extrinsic Optical Fiber Pressure Sensor Based on F-P Cavity

“…Inland earthquakes, landslides and other geological disasters occur frequently [4]. Therefore, the in-situ stress monitoring of the crustal stress state cannot only serve the engineering construction of various rock masses, but also provide an important scientific basis for geodynamic research, fault activity research and geological disaster early warning research [5][6][7]. It's achieved by measuring the dynamic change law of stress with time, i.e., through the sensor element, measure and record the stress change of the crustal rock mass, and then obtain the stress state of key structural parts.…”