A Combination Model for Displacement Interval Prediction of Concrete Dams Based on Residual Estimation

Abstract

Accurate prediction and reasonable warning for dam displacement are important contents of dam safety monitoring. However, it is difficult to identify abnormal displacement based on deterministic point prediction results. In response, this paper proposes a model that integrates several strategies to achieve high-precision point prediction and interval prediction of dam displacement. Specifically, the interval prediction of dam displacement is realized in three stages. In the first stage, a displacement prediction model based on Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) is constructed. In the second stage, the prediction error sequence of XGBoost model is generated by the residual estimation method proposed in this paper, and the residual prediction model based on artificial neural network (ANN) is constructed through the maximum likelihood estimation method. In the third stage, the interval estimation of the noise sequence composed of the training error of the ANN model is carried out. Finally, the results obtained above are combined to realize the interval prediction of the dam displacement. The performance of the proposed model is verified by the monitoring data of an actual concrete dam. The results show that the hybrid model can not only achieve better point prediction accuracy than the single model, but also provide high quality interval prediction results.

A Dam Safety State Prediction and Analysis Method Based on EMD-SSA-LSTM

“…Dam warnings for reservoirs primarily rely on systematic mechanisms for early warning [9]. This involves learning and summarizing the evolving patterns of measured data through empirical data analysis [10][11][12]. By establishing appropriate monitoring data prediction models, it is possible to simulate and predict the dam's own behavior, providing proactive measures for the safe operation of the dam [13][14][15][16].…”

Influence of Load–Settlement Relationship of Intermediate Foundation Pile Group on Numerical Analysis of a Skyscraper under Construction

“…The purpose of the computational analysis was to estimate the settlements (Figure 18) of a high-rise building founded on a slab-and-pile foundation [30]. The obtained results were compared with geodetic measurements of vertical displacements of the slab foundation [31]. The calculations also made it possible to read the ground reaction, indicating what load was carried by the subsoil under the foundation slab [32].…”