A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy

Miller, Joshua B.; Sanjurjo, Adam

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2450479

Cited by 37 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 137 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The only other controlled shooting studies that we are aware of are Jagacinski, Newell, and Isaac () and Miller and Sanjurjo (). Both studies have few shooters (6 and 8, respectively) but many shots across multiple shooting sessions for each player (540 and 900+ shots, respectively).…”

Section: Application To the Hot Hand Fallacymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…296–297)). Miller and Sanjurjo () provided an analysis that distinguishes between hot hand and cold hand shooting, and found hot hand shooting across all extant controlled shooting data sets, but little in the way of cold hand shooting. Thus, in the present analysis, we use the terms streakiness and hot hand shooting interchangeably.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Further, evidence of specific forms of strategic adjustment has been documented ( Aharoni and Sarig (), Bocskocsky, Ezekowitz, and Stein ()). See Miller and Sanjurjo () for further details.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Miller¹,

Sanjurjo²

2018

Econometrica

Self Cite

121

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We prove that a subtle but substantial bias exists in a common measure of the conditional dependence of present outcomes on streaks of past outcomes in sequential data. The magnitude of this streak selection bias generally decreases as the sequence gets longer, but increases in streak length, and remains substantial for a range of sequence lengths often used in empirical work. We observe that the canonical study in the influential hot hand fallacy literature, along with replications, are vulnerable to the bias. Upon correcting for the bias, we find that the longstanding conclusions of the canonical study are reversed.

show abstract

Section: Application To the Hot Hand Fallacymentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Miller¹,

Sanjurjo²

2018

Econometrica

Self Cite

121

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…E.g., if a player shot par on average, the coefficient on lastb would be minus one and the coefficient on lasta plus one, for a dependent variable of s 2 . The bias referred to by Miller and Sanjurjo (2014), and studied explicitly by Miller, Sanjurjo, et al (2015), is very similar, as shown in Appendix B.3 of the latter paper, which refers to the analogous non-panel case. Note that this bias is not caused by time effects (in our context, hole-day effects), since for these FE groups the lagged regressor is not in the same group as the current observation.…”

mentioning

confidence: 65%

Reference Points, Prospect Theory, and Momentum on the PGA Tour

Stone

Arkes

2016

Journal of Sports Economics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Pope and Schweitzer (AER, 2011) study predictions of prospect theory for the reference point of par on the current hole in professional golf. We study prospect theory predictions for three other plausible reference points: par for recent holes, for the round, and for the tournament. A potentially competing force is momentum in quality of play, i.e., the hot or cold hand. While prospect theory predicts negative serial correlation in better (worse)-than-average performance across holes, the hot (cold) hand implies the opposite.We find evidence that, for each of the reference points we study, when scores are better than par, hot hand effects are dominated by prospect theory effects. These effects can occur via two mechanisms, greater conservatism or less effort; we find evidence that the former (latter) dominates for scores closer to (further from) the reference point. We also find evidence of prospect theory effects (greater risk-seeking) when scores are worse than par for the round in Round 1, and of cold hand effects for scores worse than par for the tournament in Round 3. The magnitudes of some of the joint effects are comparable to those found by Pope and Schweitzer and other related papers. We conclude by discussing how, rather than compete, prospect theory and cold hand forces might also cause one another.

show abstract

“…Physicians making inferences based on limited medical tests (Gigerenzer and Gray [25], Sedlmeier and Gigerenzer [26]); coaches captive to the "hot-hand" model (Tversky and Gilovich [27], Miller and Sanjurjo [28]; economists absorbed in data patterns more relevant to the past than applicable to future developments (Hertwig and Ortmann [29]) can be given as examples. These have in common the perception of random and non-random events.…”

Section: Expectationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anticipation and Computation: Is Anticipatory Computing Possible?

Nadin

2015

Cognitive Systems Monographs

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Anticipation, a definitory characteristic of the living, is expressed in action. It implies awareness of past, present, and future, i.e., of time. Anticipatory processes pertain to the world's dynamics. Anticipation also implies an observation capability, the acquired function of processing what is observed, and the ability to effect change. Computation means processing quantitative distinctions of physical entities and of those that inform the condition and behavior of the living. Autonomic processing is the prerequisite for anticipatory expression. In the physical, processing is reactive; in the living it is autonomic. Automated calculations, inspired by human "computers," are different in nature from those involved in living dynamics. To distinguish between anticipatory and predictive computation is to account for the role of the possible future in dealing with change.

show abstract

A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy

Cited by 37 publications

References 137 publications

Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Reference Points, Prospect Theory, and Momentum on the PGA Tour

Anticipation and Computation: Is Anticipatory Computing Possible?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About