A cointegration analysis of rabies cases and weather components in Davao City, Philippines from 2006 to 2017

Abstract

Rabies is a lethal viral disease and dogs are the major disease reservoir in the Philippines. Spatio-temporal variations in environmental factors are known to affect disease dynamics. Some rabies-affected countries considered investigating the role of weather components in driving rabies cases and it has helped them to strategize their control efforts. In this study, cointegration analysis was conducted between the monthly reported rabies cases and the weather components, such as temperature and precipitation, to verify the effect of weather components on rabies incidence in Davao City, Philippines. With the Engle-Granger cointegration tests, we found that rabies cases are cointegrated into each of the weather components. It was further validated, using the Granger causality test, that each weather component predicts the rabies cases and not vice versa. Moreover, we performed the Johansen cointegration test to show that the weather components simultaneously affect the number of rabies cases, which allowed us to estimate a vector-error correction model for rabies incidence as a function of temperature and precipitation. Our analyses showed that canine rabies in Davao City was weather-sensitive, which implies that rabies incidence could be projected using established long-run relationship among reported rabies cases, temperature, and precipitation. This study also provides empirical evidence that can guide local health officials in formulating preventive strategies for rabies control and eradication based on weather patterns.

Assessing six decades of rabies in the Philippines

“…Since it is the country's largest city, cases were coming from 210 rabies-infected dogs documented from 2006 to 2017. Even though mass canine vaccination has been in place in Davao City since 2006, when other control measures impounding and neutering were implemented in 2011, rabies incidents continued to fluctuate [53]. Figure 4.…”

Climate Change and Companion Animals: Identifying Links and Opportunities for Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

“…Several animal welfare organizations have already reported that incidences of dogs dying in hot cars are increasing ( British Veterinary Association 2019 ; Shih et al 2019 ). Increase in warm temperature also has an alarming correlation with an increase in dog bites ( Ahmed et al 2019 ) and rabies infections in dogs ( Lachica et al 2020 ). An increase in droughts may also worsen the rabies epidemic as rabies infection has been negatively correlated with precipitation ( Courtin et al 2000 ; Lachica et al 2020 ).…”

“…Increase in warm temperature also has an alarming correlation with an increase in dog bites ( Ahmed et al 2019 ) and rabies infections in dogs ( Lachica et al 2020 ). An increase in droughts may also worsen the rabies epidemic as rabies infection has been negatively correlated with precipitation ( Courtin et al 2000 ; Lachica et al 2020 ).…”

Integrating Risk Assessment and Decision‐Making Methods in Analyzing the Dynamics of COVID‐19 Epidemics in Davao City, Mindanao Island, Philippines

“…Despite this, there remains a need for a better understanding of how contact patterns and human mobility data translate into disease transmission dynamics (Klepac et al, 2018). The use of vaccination is one of the most effective and known strategy in making sure that infectious disease is controlled (Lachica et al, 2020;Vairo et al, 2017). Vaccination reduces the risk of disease transmission which essentially reduces the size of the susceptible population (Ibuka et al, 2016;Stier, Berman, & Bettencourt, 2020).…”