A Climatology of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Northwest Mexico during the North American Monsoon

Ramos-Pérez, Omar; Adams, D. K.; Ochoa-Moya, Carlos A.; Quintanar, Arturo I.

doi:10.3390/atmos13050665

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 176 publications

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“…The regionalization shows a very similar temporal pattern in almost all subregions, that is, two peaks of high activity during summer and autumn, a transition phase in spring, and low activity during winter. Remarkably, a bimodal distribution is observed only in the NW subregion (active vs. inactive season), which has been related to the influence of the North American Monsoon (Boos & Pascale, 2021; Ramos‐Pérez et al, 2022). The highest thunderstorm activity in FV has been associated with the role of complex terrain features in generating deep convection (Brito‐Castillo et al, 2022; León‐Cruz et al, 2021).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this regard, some studies have examined deep convective clouds related to severe weather. For example, mesoscale convective systems (MCS) over northwestern Mexico have been widely analysed during the North American monsoon (NAM) (Farfán et al, 2021; Ramos‐Pérez et al, 2022; Valdés‐Manzanilla, 2015). Likewise, the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and deep convective clouds over FV has been analysed, illustrating that both events are related to the orographic features (Brito‐Castillo et al, 2022; León‐Cruz et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Thunderstorm and hailstorm environments in Mexico

León‐Cruz

Caetano

Cortés‐Ramos

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Thunderstorm and hailstorm environments from 1981 to 2018 are analysed using the proximity soundings approach based on the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Given the nature of the severe weather dataset, four proximity soundings 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 local time were retrieved per day with hail activity or thunderstorms. After quality control, a total of 30,760 vertical profiles were used and grouped seasonally and spatially to consider the local variation of the convective environments. Diverse instability, kinematic, and composite parameters were calculated to characterize the environments for these two convective hazards. The results indicate differences mainly modulated by orographic features, continentality, regional climate, and general synoptic characteristics. Higher instability environments of thunderstorms and hailstorms are observed in the subregions near moisture sources such as oceans, principally during summer and autumn when tropical activity occurs. High wind shear environments are concentrated during winter and spring, mainly in central and northern regions of the country, associated with the passage of frontal systems. The covariates are reasonably accurate at predicting severe weather, but their prediction skill decreases during the warm season when severe weather is more common in Mexico. Increased knowledge of severe weather and associated convective hazards will improve weather forecasting and may be helpful in disaster risk reduction due to meteorological hazards in Mexico.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thunderstorm and hailstorm environments in Mexico

León‐Cruz

Caetano

Cortés‐Ramos

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…For each temperature threshold, monthly composites and anomalies were created with respect to the 2009–2018 average, which allow the selection of periods with contrasting convective features over the mainland west of the SMO, gulf and peninsula. This area is unique, and of concern, due to frequent deep convection incidence (e.g., Nesbitt et al, 2008) and severe‐weather events (Ramos‐Pérez et al, 2022) when compared to the highest elevations of the SMO. Figure 3 shows the corresponding depictions of tops colder than −38°C for 2010 and 2014; in 2010, a relatively lower frequency than that in the 10‐year average was reached over the region bounded by 20°–28°N.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deep convection, lightning activity and population impact over northwest Mexico: Coastal hotspots from 2009 to 2018

Farfán

Brito‐Castillo²,

López

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Northwest Mexico (NWM) is an extensive region with a humid and unstable environment leading to atmospheric convection during the North American monsoon. Occasionally, extreme events are associated with severe weather, including deep convection, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Based on the period from July through September 2009–2018, the present study investigates general characteristics of convection. Geostationary satellites were used to document three‐dimensional cloud cover structures over the mainland, Gulf of California (GOC) and Baja California Peninsula (BCP). The convection developed over the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) mountains with a distinct cloud top structure over the southern GOC. In contrast, reduced cloud cover was observed over the peninsula and eastern Pacific Ocean. An active (2014) and inactive (2010) season are examined in more detail; the former had a more favourable environmental setting to support above‐normal convection and rainfall with respect to the 10‐year average. A regional‐scale analysis of lightning was computed with data from a ground‐based sensor network, including date, time and location of more than 16 million records. Major findings include: (1) lightning enhancement occurred in conjunction with deep convection, west of the SMO from the afternoon through the evening, while the gulf entrance became a well‐defined hotspot close to the mainland coastal plains overnight; (2) most lightning‐related deaths were in specific areas near the coastal plains or within isolated regions of the SMO foothills; (3) high exposure is expected in areas with considerable lightning and population located within 100 km from the gulf coastline. These findings are valuable for monitoring monsoon thunderstorms and for improving the ability to provide timely warnings of severe weather.

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“…Los Mochis is the main city of Ahome municipality, situated in the northeastern region of the Mexican state of Sinaloa. This city is positioned within the North American monsoon (NAM) core domain, leading to a notable occurrence of convective activity [30][31][32] and a substantial increase in summer rainfall [33]. Ref.…”

Section: Los Mochis Sinmentioning

confidence: 99%

Approximation of a Convective-Event-Monitoring System Using GOES-R Data and Ensemble ML Models

Dávila-Ortiz,

Carbajal-Pérez,

Velázquez-Zapata

et al. 2024

Remote Sensing

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The presence of deep convective clouds is directly related to potential convective hazards, such as lightning strikes, hail, severe storms, flash floods, and tornadoes. On the other hand, Mexico has a limited and heterogeneous network of instruments that allow for efficient and reliable monitoring and forecasting of such events. In this study, a quasi-real-time framework for deep convective cloud identification and modeling based on machine learning (ML) models was developed. Eight different ML models and model assembly approaches were fed with Interest Fields estimated from Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) sensor data on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R) for one region in central Mexico and another in northeastern Mexico, both selected for their intense convective activity and high levels of vulnerability to severe weather. The results indicate that a simple approach such as Logistic Regression (LR) or Random Forest (RF) can be a good alternative for the identification and simulation of deep convective clouds in both study areas, with a probability of detection of (POD) ≈ 0.84 for Los Mochis and POD of ≈ 0.72 for Mexico City. Similarly, the false alarm ratio (FAR) ≈ 0.2 and FAR ≈ 0.4 values were obtained for Los Mochis and Mexico City, respectively. Finally, a post-processing filter based on lightning incidence (Lightning Filter) was applied with data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) of the GOES-16 satellite, showed great potential to improve the probability of detection (POD) of the ML models. This work sets a precedent for the implementation of an early-warning system for hazards associated with intense convective activity in Mexico.

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A Climatology of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Northwest Mexico during the North American Monsoon

Cited by 6 publications

References 176 publications

Thunderstorm and hailstorm environments in Mexico

Thunderstorm and hailstorm environments in Mexico

Deep convection, lightning activity and population impact over northwest Mexico: Coastal hotspots from 2009 to 2018

Approximation of a Convective-Event-Monitoring System Using GOES-R Data and Ensemble ML Models

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