A climate-smart spatial planning framework

Abstract

1. Climate change is already having profound effects on biodiversity, but climate change adaptation has yet to be fully incorporated into area-based management tools used to conserve biodiversity, such as protected areas. One main obstacle to its inclusion is the lack of consensus regarding how impacts of climate change can be included in spatial conservation plans.2. We propose a climate-smart framework that prioritizes the protection of climate refugia—areas of low climate exposure and high biodiversity retention—identified using climate metrics. We explore four aspects of climate-smart spatial planning in the proposed framework: i) climate model ensembles; ii) multiple emission scenarios; iii) climate metrics; and iv) approaches to identifying climate refugia. We illustrate this framework in the Western Pacific Ocean, but it is equally applicable to terrestrial systems.3. All aspects of climate-smart spatial planning considered affected the configuration of spatial plans. The choice of climate metrics and approaches to identifying refugia result in large differences in climate-smart spatial plans, whereas the choice of climate models and emission scenarios have smaller effects. As configuration of spatial plans depended on climate metrics used, a spatial plan based on a single measure of climate change (e.g., warming) will not necessarily be robust against other measures of climate change (e.g., ocean acidification). We recommend including climate metrics most relevant for the biodiversity considered. To include the uncertainty associated with different climate futures, we recommend using multiple climate models (i.e., an ensemble) and emission scenarios. Finally, we show that the approaches we used to identify climate refugia come with trade-offs between the degree to which they are climate-smart and their efficiency in meeting conservation targets. Hence, the choice of approach will depend on the relative value stakeholders place on climate change adaptation.4. By using this framework, protected areas can be designed with improved longevity and thus safeguard biodiversity against current and future climate change. We hope that the proposed climate-smart framework helps transition conservation planning towards climate-smart approaches.

A metric‐based framework for climate‐smart conservation planning

“…The data used for the case study are available at Zenodo (Buenafe et al, 2023). The global AquaMaps data (Kaschner et al, 2019) were retrieved as described in Appendix S1.…”

“…The historical sea surface temperatures were downloaded from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) product (Huang et al, 2020) where the entire global dataset from 1981‐present can be downloaded as a netCDF and must be spliced temporally and spatially as needed. All scripts used to conduct the case study are published at Zenondo (Buenafe et al, 2023). To ensure that the code runs smoothly, use the updated versions of R and all Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) packages declared in the repository.…”