A climate-driven abundance model to assess mosquito control strategies

Cailly, Priscilla; Tran, Annelise; Balenghien, Thomas; L’Ambert, Grégory; Toty, Céline; Ezanno, Pauline

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.10.027

Cited by 92 publications

(118 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The model (2.1) is an extension of the autonomous mosquito population biology model in Ngwa et al (2010), by adding: (i) the effect of temperature and rainfall, (ii) the aquatic stages of the mosquito and (iii) density-dependent larval mortality rate. It also extends the nonautonomous mosquito dynamics model in Cailly et al (2012) by giving a novel and realistic formulation of the temperature-and rainfall-dependent parameters of the model, as described below.…”

Section: F L (T R)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mosquito is the major vector for numerous vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, dengue and West Nile virus (WNv) (Cailly et al 2012;Chitnis 2005;Esteva and Vargas 2000;Juliano 2007; Lewis et al 2006;Mordecai et al 2012;Wan and Zhu 2010;Wu et al 2009). There are approximately 3500 mosquito species in the world, of which 200 species cause diseases in humans (WHO 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate variables, such as temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind, significantly affect the life-cycle and, consequently, the abundance of mosquitoes in populations (Agusto et al 2015;Cailly et al 2012;Mordecai et al 2012;Shaman and Day 2007;Wu et al 2009). Numerous mathematical models have been designed and used to assess the impact of climate change and seasonality on the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria (Agusto et al 2015;Ebi et al 2005;Jaenisch and Patz 2002;Mordecai et al 2012;Paaijmans et al 2009), dengue (Chen et al 2010;Hales et al 2002;Pham et al 2011;Wu et al 2009;Yang et al 2011), chikungunya (Fischer et al 2013;Meason and Paterson 2014) and WNv (Abdelrazec et al 2015;Wang et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Numerous mathematical models have been designed and used to assess the impact of climate change and seasonality on the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria (Agusto et al 2015;Ebi et al 2005;Jaenisch and Patz 2002;Mordecai et al 2012;Paaijmans et al 2009), dengue (Chen et al 2010;Hales et al 2002;Pham et al 2011;Wu et al 2009;Yang et al 2011), chikungunya (Fischer et al 2013;Meason and Paterson 2014) and WNv (Abdelrazec et al 2015;Wang et al 2011). For instance, such models allow for the determination of parameters, or variables, that influences the life-cycle of the mosquitoes (Ahumada et al 2004;Cailly et al 2012;Tran et al 2013). The spatio-temporal dynamics of mosquito populations (in urban areas) have been studied in Cummins et al (2012) and Oluwagbemi et al (2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, most of the existing models of mosquito population dynamics were built for a specific mosquito species, within a specific geographic context (e.g., Anopheles gambiae in the Sahel (Yamana and Eltahir 2013); Anopheles arabiensis in Zambia (Oluwagbemi et al 2013) and culex in Canada (Wang et al 2011)) and may not be applied to other mosquito species or areas. A model for the dynamics of general species of mosquitoes is developed in Cailly et al (2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics

Abdelrazec

Gumel

2016

J. Math. Biol.

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A new stage-structured model for the population dynamics of the mosquito (a major vector for numerous vector-borne diseases), which takes the form of a deterministic system of non-autonomous nonlinear differential equations, is designed and used to study the effect of variability in temperature and rainfall on mosquito abundance in a community. Two functional forms of eggs oviposition rate, namely the Verhulst-Pearl logistic and Maynard-Smith-Slatkin functions, are used. Rigorous analysis of the autonomous version of the model shows that, for any of the oviposition functions considered, the trivial equilibrium of the model is locally-and globally-asymptotically stable if a certain vectorial threshold quantity is less than unity. Conditions for the existence and global asymptotic stability of the non-trivial equilibrium solutions of the model are also derived. The model is shown to undergo a Hopf bifurcation under certain conditions (and that increased density-dependent competition in larval mortality reduces the likelihood of such bifurcation). The analyses reveal that the Maynard-Smith-Slatkin oviposition function sustains more oscillations than the Verhulst-Pearl logistic function (hence, it is more suited, from ecological viewpoint, for modeling the egg oviposition process). The non-autonomous model is shown to have a globally-asymptotically stable trivial periodic solution, for each of the oviposition functions, when the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity. Furthermore, this model, in the absence of density-dependent mortality rate for larvae, has a unique and globally-asymptotically stable periodic solution under certain conditions. Numerical simulations of the non-autonomous model, using mosquito surveillance and weather data from the Peel region of Ontario, Canada, show a peak mosquito abundance for temperature and rainfall values in the range [20−25] • C and [15-35] mm, respectively. These ranges are recorded in the Peel region between July and August (hence, this study suggests that anti-mosquito control effects should be intensified during this period).

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Section: F L (T R)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics

Abdelrazec

Gumel

2016

J. Math. Biol.

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Population of the temperate mosquito, Culex pipiens, decreases in response to habitat climatological changes in future

2017

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Predictions of the temporal distribution of vector mosquitoes are an important issue for human health because the response of mosquito populations to climate change could have implications for the risk of vector‐borne diseases. To elucidate the effects of climate change on mosquito populations inhabiting temperate regions, we developed a Physiology‐based Climate‐driven Mosquito Population model for temperate regions. For accurately reproducing the temporal patterns observed in mosquito populations, the key factors were identified by implementing the combinations of factors into the model. We focused on three factors: the effect of diapause, the positive effect of rainfall on larval carrying capacity, and the negative effect of rainfall as the washout mortality on aquatic stages. For each model, parameters were calibrated using weekly observation data of a Culex pipiens adult population collected in Tokyo, Japan. Based on its likelihood value, the model incorporating diapause, constant carrying capacity, and washout mortality was the best to replicate the observed data. By using the selected model and applying global climate model data, our results indicated that the mosquito population would decrease and adults’ active season would be shortened under future climate conditions. We found that incorporating the washout effect in the model settings or not caused a difference in the temporal patterns in the projected mosquito populations. This suggested that water resources in mosquito habitats in temperate regions should be considered for predicting the risk of vector‐borne diseases in such regions.

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A two-strain reaction–diffusion malaria model with seasonality and vector-bias

Chu

Bai

2022

Z. Angew. Math. Phys.

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A climate-driven abundance model to assess mosquito control strategies

Cited by 92 publications

References 22 publications

Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics

Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics

Population of the temperate mosquito, Culex pipiens, decreases in response to habitat climatological changes in future

A two-strain reaction–diffusion malaria model with seasonality and vector-bias

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