A climate‐based prediction model in the high‐risk clusters of the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam: towards improving dengue prevention and control

Phung, Dung; Talukder, Mohammad Radwanur Rahman; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia

doi:10.1111/tmi.12754

Cited by 22 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…In this study, dengue incidence was found strongly associated with temperatures and rainfalls. These findings were strongly agreement with previous studies in Vietnam [ 27 , 42 , 53 ]. Temperature has been revealed to play important role in biting rate, egg and immature mosquito development, developmental time of virus in mosquito, and survival at all states of the mosquito life cycle [ 54 ], and experimental study [ 55 ] indicated that temperature range for survival through all life phases of Ae .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

The effects of socioecological factors on variation of communicable diseases: A multiple-disease study at the national scale of Vietnam

Phung

Nguyen

et al. 2018

PLoS ONE

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ObjectiveTo examine the effects of socioecological factors on multiple communicable diseases across Vietnam.MethodsWe used the Moran’s I tests to evaluate spatial clusters of diseases and applied multilevel negative binomial regression models using the Bayesian framework to analyse the association between socioecological factors and the diseases queried by oral, airborne, vector-borne, and animal transmission diseases.Results and significanceThe study found that oral-transmission diseases were spatially distributed across the country; whereas, the airborne-transmission diseases were more clustered in the Northwest and vector-borne transmission diseases were more clustered in the South. Most of diseases were sensitive with climatic factors. For instance, a 1°C increase in average temperature is significantly associated with 0.4% (95CI, 0.3–0.5), 2.5% (95%CI, 1.4–3.6), 0.9% (95%CI, 0.6–1.4), 1.1% (95%CI), 5% (95%CI, 3-.7.4), 0.4% (95%CI, 0.2–0.7), and 2% (95%CI, 1.5–2.8) increase in risk of diarrhoea, shigellosis, mumps, influenza, dengue, malaria, and rabies respectively. The influences of socio-economic factors on risk of communicable diseases are varied by factors with the biggest influence of population density. The research findings reflect an important implication for the climate change adaptation strategies of health sectors. A development of weather-based early warning systems should be considered to strengthen communicable disease prevention in Vietnam.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

The effects of socioecological factors on variation of communicable diseases: A multiple-disease study at the national scale of Vietnam

Phung

Nguyen

et al. 2018

PLoS ONE

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“…In Vietnam, dengue risk is associated with temperature, humidity, and precipitation, with different lag windows [13]. In Thailand, dengue transmission increases with monthly minimum temperature but decreases with precipitation in the previous two months [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan

2017

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“…This short prediction may not provide sufficient time to implement intervention programs to prevent ZIKV infection outbreak, especially in rural areas. Dengue fever has a similar transmission mechanism as Zika fever, was observed to have varied and longer lagged effects in Vietnam (9–12 weeks), Singapore (3 months), and Taiwan (15–18 weeks) [ 20 , 29 , 30 ]. These studies all highlighted that: (1) longer prediction time could provide adequate time for governmental agencies to respond; (2) meteorological factors are the main predictors of the disease outbreak, and they are easily accessible and manageable.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surveillance on the endemic of Zika virus infection by meteorological factors in Colombia: a population-based spatial and temporal study

et al. 2018

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BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) infection is a pandemic and a public health emergency. It is transmitted by mosquitoes, primarily the Aedes genus. In light of no treatment currently, it is crucial to develop effective vector control programs to prevent the spread of ZIKV infection earlier when observing possible risk factors, such as weather conditions enhancing mosquito breeding and surviving.MethodsThis study collected daily meteorological measurements and weekly ZIKV infectious cases among 32 departments of Colombia from January 2015–December 2016. This study applied the distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate the association between the number of ZIKA virus infection and meteorological measurements, controlling for spatial and temporal variations. We examined at most three meteorological factors with 20 lags in weeks in the model.ResultsAverage humidity, total rainfall, and maximum temperature were more predictable of ZIKV infection outbreaks than other meteorological factors. Our models can detect significantly lagged effects of average humidity, total rainfall, and maximum temperature on outbreaks up to 15, 14, and 20 weeks, respectively. The spatial analysis identified 12 departments with a significant threat of ZIKV, and eight of those high-risk departments were located between the Equator and 6°N. The outbreak prediction also performed well in identified high-risk departments.ConclusionOur results demonstrate that meteorological factors could be used for predicting ZIKV epidemics. Building an early warning surveillance system is important for preventing ZIKV infection, particularly in endemic areas.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3085-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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A climate‐based prediction model in the high‐risk clusters of the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam: towards improving dengue prevention and control

Cited by 22 publications

References 28 publications

The effects of socioecological factors on variation of communicable diseases: A multiple-disease study at the national scale of Vietnam

The effects of socioecological factors on variation of communicable diseases: A multiple-disease study at the national scale of Vietnam

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan

Surveillance on the endemic of Zika virus infection by meteorological factors in Colombia: a population-based spatial and temporal study

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