A classification scheme to determine wildfires from the satellite record in the cool grasslands of southern Canada: considerations for fire occurrence modelling and warning criteria

Thompson, Dan K.; Morrison, Kimberly

doi:10.5194/nhess-20-3439-2020

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 60 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…With a warming climate, there is a risk of increasing peatland and "legacy carbon" fires (Ingram et al, 2019) in boreal forests, particularly in stands younger than 60 years where drying limits the resilience of the carbon-rich soils (Walker et al, 2019), and in drying fen watersheds near large settlements, like the costliest wildfire in Canada's history -the May 2016 Horse River-Fort McMurray fire (Elmes et al, 2018). Future emission estimates from peat fires will need to be informed by where and in what condition these carbonrich soils reside, particularly as predicted moderate and severe drought in boreal peatlands in western Canada are expected to increase fire size by over 500 % (Thompson et al, 2019). Current Earth system models do not typically characterize well or include peat fires and related feedbacks (Lasslop et al, 2019;Loisel et al, 2020), further limiting our ability to predict future emissions from peatland burning.…”

Section: Peatlandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70∘ N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest–steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2.5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65∘ N are larger than emissions from the anthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60∘ N, with 56 % of black carbon emissions above 65∘ N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.

show abstract

Section: Peatlandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…While a strong effect of phenology on fire proneness is expected in areas that are both subjected to a high degree of human land use and have a large proportion of broadleaf forest cover, as exemplified in the BP ecozone, this fire–phenology association may be partially conflated with other environmental factors. For instance, at the southern fringe of the boreal biome in western Canada, human‐caused ignitions associated with agricultural activities, whether deliberate or accidental, are common in the spring (Thompson & Morrison, 2020). Occasionally, a springtime ignition develops into a large conflagration that burns for weeks or months, though large springtime wildfires are not as prevalent as those burning during the summer in Canada (Burton et al, 2008).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Broadleaf tree phenology and springtime wildfire occurrence in boreal Canada

Parisien

Barber

Flannigan

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Although broadleaf tree species of the boreal biome have a lower flammability compared to conifers, there is a period following snow melt and prior to leaf flush (i.e., greenup), termed the “spring window” by fire managers, when these forests are relatively conducive to wildfire ignition and spread. The goal of this study was to characterize the duration, timing, and fire proneness of the spring window across boreal Canada and assess the link between these phenological variables and the incidence of springtime wildfires. We used remotely sensed snow cover and greenup data to identify the annual spring window for five boreal ecozones from 2001 to 2021 and then compared seasonality of wildfire starts (by cause) and fire‐conducive weather in relation to this window, averaged over the 21‐year period. We conducted a path analysis to concomitantly evaluate the influence of the spring window's duration, the timing of greenup, and fire‐conducive weather on the annual number and the seasonality of spring wildfires. Results show that the characteristics of spring windows vary substantially from year to year and among geographic zones, with the interior west of Canada having the longest and most fire‐conducive spread window and, accordingly, the greatest springtime wildfire activity. We also provide support for the belief that springtime weather generally promotes wind‐driven, rather than drought‐driven wildfires. The path analyses show idiosyncratic behavior among ecozones, but, in general, the seasonality of the wildfire season is mainly driven by the timing of the greenup, whereas the number of spring wildfires mostly responds to the duration of the spring window and the frequency of fire‐conducive weather. The results of this study allows us to better understand and anticipate the biome‐wide changes projected for the northern forests of North America.

show abstract

“…Further, Parfenova et al (2019) found crop growing conditions would be established in some of the permafrost zones of Siberia under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 by 2080, favorable for wheat and maize (silage) production. These crops are commonly managed via open burning practices in the U.S., eastern Europe, Russia, and Canada (Kutcher and Malhi, 2010;McCarty et al, 2017;Theesfeld and Jelinek, 2017;Shiwakoti et al, 2019;Thompson and Morrison, 2020). Thus, seasonality of burns and management of croplands, grasslands, and deciduous forests may occur at times when transport of emissions to the Arctic is likely, i.e., late winter/early spring for Russia (Hall and Loboda, 2018;Qi and Wang, 2019) and Canada and north central U.S. (Viatte et al, 2015), respectively.…”

Section: Fire Management In the Arcticmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reviews & Syntheses: Arctic Fire Regimes and Emissions in the 21st Century

McCarty¹,

Aalto²,

Paunu³

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In recent years, the Pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesises current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the Pan-Arctic has consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following: (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e., lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the Pan-Arctic and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70° N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use, forest-steppe to steppe, tundra-to-taiga, and coniferous-to-deciduous forest transitions in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning. However, at the country- and landscape-scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2.5 emissions from wildfires above 50° N and 65° N are larger than emissions from the anthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring, respectively. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60° N, with 56 % of black carbon emissions above 65° N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and future Arctic wildfire seasons potential. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems and Pan-Arctic communities.

show abstract

A classification scheme to determine wildfires from the satellite record in the cool grasslands of southern Canada: considerations for fire occurrence modelling and warning criteria

Cited by 5 publications

References 60 publications

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

Broadleaf tree phenology and springtime wildfire occurrence in boreal Canada

Reviews & Syntheses: Arctic Fire Regimes and Emissions in the 21st Century

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

A classification scheme to determine wildfires from the satellite record in the cool grasslands of southern Canada: considerations for fire occurrence modelling and warning criteria

Cited by 5 publications

References 60 publications

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

Broadleaf tree phenology and springtime wildfire occurrence in boreal Canada

Reviews &amp; Syntheses: Arctic Fire Regimes and Emissions in the 21st Century

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Reviews & Syntheses: Arctic Fire Regimes and Emissions in the 21st Century