A chaos theory perspective on destination crisis management: Evidence from Mexico

A Chaos Theory Perspective of Destination Crisis and Sustainable Tourism Development in Islands: The Case of Cyprus

“…Secondly, crises are usually non-static events, which tend to be unpredictable in their manifestation and progress (Speakman and Sharpley, 2012). As Speakman and Sharpley (2012) argue, contemporary crisis management models are characterised by certain boundaries that question their effectiveness: (a) the unpredictability of each crisis, (b) the complexity of crises and the complex system of relationships among tourism stakeholders, (c) the uniqueness of each crisis which dictates unique approaches, (d) the cultural context that the crisis occurs within, and (e) the lack of model relevance for each small tourist enterprise that composes the complex tourism system. Consequently, crises are actually irregular occurrences affecting the tourism system and its stakeholders in different ways in each period of time.…”

“…Moreover, to understand the turbulent relationships/changes in the tourism system during crises, chaos theory puts forward a number of theoretical concepts: 'butterfly effect', 'lock-ineffect', 'edge of chaos', 'bifurcation', 'self-organisation' and 'strange attractors' (Duffy, 2000;Faulkner, 2000;McKercher, 1999;Russell, 2006;Speakman and Sharpley, 2012;Young, 1991;Zahra and Ryan, 2007). Firstly, the 'butterfly effect'(Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions -SDIC) refers to the fact that minor insignificant changes in early stages of development may lead to a chain reaction which climaxes to the production of larger outcomes; these can dramatically shift the structure of the system (Faulkner, 2000;McKercher, 1999).…”

“…According to Speakman and Sharpley (2012), even if a system has enjoyed a relative state of stability or equilibrium for many years, this equilibrium is fragile and may be unexpectedly disrupted. Hence, they conclude that the 'butterfly effect' is relevant, because a presumable minor event may lead to larger crises.…”

“…Sellnow et al (2002) suggest that all complex systems, even those that demonstrate relative stability, have the potential for bifurcation, while systems with high condition of exchanges and links with their environments can be characterised by higher levels of instability and sporadic bifurcation. Through 'bifurcation', the system enters in a new situation characterised by chaos and disequilibrium, a state where cosmology events (occurred when the crisis situation generates an overwhelming sensation on the part of observers) that exceed all until now learned knowledge and response capabilities, happen (Speakman and Sharpley, 2012;Weick and Sutcliffe, 2001). …”

“…Yet, as Speakman and Sharpley (2012) argue, 'self-organisation' presupposes that a return to normality is neither feasible nor necessarily desired.…”