A Changing Climate for Anthropological and Archaeological Research? Improving the Climate-Change Models

Abstract

Climate change is the latest in a dismaying series of challenges that industrialism and modernity have gifted to humanity. To date, anthropological and archaeological responses have focused largely on the culturally particular-that is, on the interactions of climate, environment, cultural schema, and social systems in specific locales and eras. In this article, I urge a complementary response that capitalizes on archaeology and anthropology's holistic and universalistic investigative aspirations and expertise. For two decades, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has overseen major efforts to model human social dynamics and their implications for future climate change. These models are technically sophisticated but economically reductionist and substantively crude. Here, I review these efforts and provide three examples of how established and future archaeological and anthropological research could improve them. Recent changes to the IPCC's modeling regime make this an opportune moment for such a project. [climate change, climate modeling, IPCC, emissions scenarios] RESUMEN El cambio climático es elúltimo en una serie de preocupantes retos que el industrialismo y la modernidad le han regalado a la humanidad. Hasta la fecha, las respuestas antropológicas y arqueológicas se han centrado largamente en lo culturalmente particular-es decir, en las interacciones de clima, ambiente, esquema cultural, y sistemas sociales en locales y eras específicos. En este artículo, urjo una respuesta complementaria que capitalice en el conocimiento y las aspiraciones investigativas holísticas y universalistas de la arqueología y la antropología. Por dos décadas, el Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC) ha monitoreado grandes esfuerzos para modelar dinámicas sociales y sus implicaciones para el cambio climático futuro. Estos modelos son técnicamente sofisticados pero económicamente reduccionistas y substantivamente aproximados. Aquí, reviso estos esfuerzos y proveo tres ejemplos de cómo investigación arqueológica y antropológica establecida y futura los podría mejorar. Cambios recientes al régimen de modelización del IPCC hace este un momento oportuno para tal proyecto. [cambio climático, modelización climática, IPCC, escenarios de emisiones]I n less than nine decades, if nothing is done, global mean temperature could rise by 3½ -4°C or more. Higher latitudes will see 20 percent more precipitation; Africa and southern Europe, 20 percent less. The intensity and frequency of heat waves, flooding, and tropical cyclones will have increased; the Arctic ice cap likely will have vanished, along with 30 percent of the world's coastal wetlands; and 30 percent of all species will be teetering on the edge of

Interdisciplinary knowledge exchange across scales in a globally changing marine environment

“…Additionally, the best available, interdisciplinary information is required to populate planning tools (e.g. MARXAN; Watts et al., ), to direct regional and larger scale management plans, and to parameterize models with baseline conditions from which predictions can be made and scenarios tested (Chaumillon et al., ; Roscoe, ). The iterative development of models also requires the continued input of interdisciplinary knowledge (Danielson et al., ; Munoz, Marquez, & Real, ).…”

“…can be made and scenarios tested (Chaumillon et al, 2017;Roscoe, 2014 (Munday, Donelson, & Domingos, 2017). Further elaboration and validation of ecosystem models will require ongoing collaborations between modellers and observational ecologists.…”

Archaeologies of the Past and in the Present in 2014: Materialities of Human History

“…Archaeologists have re‐energized work on environmental change to promote transdisciplinary discussions with social and physical scientists. Paul Roscoe () observes that anthropology and archaeology can participate in shaping policy. He argues that the archaeological record demonstrates the reality of rapid growth and increased integration throughout the Holocene, which suggests policy projections of global convergence are probable.…”

“…Comparisons between the past and the present are useless unless the organizational milieu in both is understood, requiring an integrated anthropology. By examining differing scales in time and space, rather than across the scale of human history (i.e., Roscoe ), these recent archaeological studies demonstrate that sustainability is a relative process. The trajectories of socioecologies are dependent on variable historical relationships.…”

Beyond Zero Population: Ethnohistory, Archaeology and the Khmer, Climate Change and the Collapse of Civilizations

“…Yet an editorial in Nature [15] notes the field of research into climate change demonstrates some degree of uncertainty. Some uncertainty can be identified in the process of manufacturing models [16,21], while some results from how past climate in human ecological settings is interpreted. For example, William Ruddiman [22] has argued convincingly that human farming in the Neolithic produced significant greenhouse gases to affect the planet's climate.…”