A Cautionary Note on the Long‐term Trend in Activity of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation During the Past Decades

Lyu, Mengxia; Jiang, Xianan; Wu, Zhiwei

doi:10.1029/2019gl086133

Cited by 6 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 45 publications

(68 reference statements)

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“…(2019) employed the yearly time series of residence time of the MJO, to illustrate that the warming trend of SST over the Western Pacific can enhance the major MJO convection over the Maritime Continent. Our results confirm such a link through the daily time series of Kelvin wave and OLR, moreover the conclusions avoid involving the large uncertainties in computing the residence time of the MJO (Lyu et al., 2019).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 84%

“…Here, we aim to understand whether the Kelvin wave components and SST play roles in the recent change of the MJO. It has been reported that the estimated values of the MJO residence time over the Maritime Continent were not robust when using different filtering methods of the real‐time multivariate MJO (RMM, Wheeler & Hendon, 2004) indices, which might disturb the diagnosis of the MJO change (Lyu et al., 2019). While it cannot be determined which method for deriving the residence time is accurate, therefore it is also necessary to recheck the changes of the MJO through another perspective.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Considering the concerns of Lyu et al. (2019), we do not examine the year‐to‐year mean states of the MJO (e.g., the yearly residence time over the Maritime continent), but focus on the secular and sustained shift of the MJO in the phase space. Then we further analyze the association between the recent SST warming trend and the changes of the MJO.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, we utilize Wheeler-Hendon phase space diagrams to analyze the association between the MJO and Kelvin waves, and to check whether their states have been changed over the past few decades. Considering the concerns of Lyu et al (2019), we do not examine the year-to-year mean states of the MJO (e.g., the yearly residence time over the Maritime continent), but focus on the secular and sustained shift of the MJO in the phase space. Then we further analyze the association between the recent SST warming trend and the changes of the MJO.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Secular Shift of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Relation to Western Pacific Ocean Warming

Huang

Franzke

2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) (Madden & Julian, 1971;Zhang, 2005) is a convectively coupled wave system propagating eastward from the tropical Indian Ocean into the Pacific and is considered an important source of extended range predictability and, in particular, of extreme weather events (Zhang, 2013). The MJO activity over the Maritime Continent and Western Pacific effectively triggers planetary-scale waves over the mid-latitudes (Franzke et al., 2019;Stan et al., 2017), where the enhanced teleconnection patterns can even cause warm temperature anomalies over the Arctic (e.g., Kang & Tziperman, 2017;Lee et al., 2011;Yoo et al., 2011). Hence, there is a strong need to better understand how the MJO will change under the influence of global warming. Modeling studies have shown that in a warmer climate, there will be a more active MJO (e.g., Adames et al., 2017;Bui & Maloney, 2018;Maloney et al., 2019), with summer precipitation in North America likely being affected through relevant teleconnections (Zhou et al., 2020). Meanwhile, recent observational studies found that over the past decades, the MJO residence time over the Maritime Continent and the Western Pacific weakly increased, which has affected rainfall around Southeast Asia and the warming trend of the Arctic (

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Secular Shift of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Relation to Western Pacific Ocean Warming

Huang

Franzke

2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The observed daily anomalies of OLR and 850-hPa zonal wind (U850) are obtained by removing the slow annual cycle (annual mean and the first three annual harmonics of the 15-year average) and interannual variability (average of the previous 120 days). This processing method is mostly used for the verification of real-time intraseasonal forecast, although it may be limited in filtering out the interannual and long-term variability (Lyu et al 2019a). For the results from the S2S hindcast, EXP1, and EXP2, the daily anomalies are defined by removing the lead-dependent model climatology and the mean of anomalies over the previous 120 days.…”

Section: Model and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions on boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation forecast in the BCC model

Liu

et al. 2020

Theor Appl Climatol

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In this paper, we evaluate the capability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM) in simulating and forecasting the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO), using its simulation and sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hindcast results. Results show that the model can generally simulate the spatial structure of the BSISO, but give relatively weaker strength, shorter period, and faster transition of BSISO phases when compared with the observations. This partially limits the model’s capability in forecasting the BSISO, with a useful skill of only 9 days. Two sets of hindcast experiments with improved atmospheric and atmosphere/ocean initial conditions (referred to as EXP1 and EXP2, respectively) are conducted to improve the BSISO forecast. The BSISO forecast skill is increased by 2 days with the optimization of atmospheric initial conditions only (EXP1), and is further increased by 1 day with the optimization of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions (EXP2). These changes lead to a final skill of 12 days, which is comparable to the skills of most models participated in the S2S Prediction Project. In EXP1 and EXP2, the BSISO forecast skills are improved for most initial phases, especially phases 1 and 2, denoting a better description for BSISO propagation from the tropical Indian Ocean to the western North Pacific. However, the skill is considerably low and insensitive to initial conditions for initial phase 6 and target phase 3, corresponding to the BSISO convection’s active-to-break transition over the western North Pacific and BSISO convection’s break-to-active transition over the tropical Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. This prediction barrier also exists in many forecast models of the S2S Prediction Project. Our hindcast experiments with different initial conditions indicate that the remarkable model errors over the Maritime Continent and subtropical western North Pacific may largely account for the prediction barrier.

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Madden–Julian Oscillation teleconnections to Australian springtime temperature extremes and their prediction in ACCESS-S1

et al. 2022

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A Cautionary Note on the Long‐term Trend in Activity of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation During the Past Decades

Cited by 6 publications

References 45 publications

A Secular Shift of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Relation to Western Pacific Ocean Warming

A Secular Shift of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Relation to Western Pacific Ocean Warming

Impacts of atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions on boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation forecast in the BCC model

Madden–Julian Oscillation teleconnections to Australian springtime temperature extremes and their prediction in ACCESS-S1

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