A Cartographic Framework for Visualizing Risk

Abstract

Increased attention to global climate change in recent years has resulted in a wide array of maps and geovisualizations that forecast various scenarios. Since many consequences of climate change are inherently geographic in nature, effective cartographic representations that depict these risks are valuable for planning and mitigation purposes. In particular, sea-level rise resulting from climate change calls attention to the numerous representation issues that warrant consideration for hazard and risk mapping in general, including categorizing and representing risk, selecting an appropriate level of realism, and displaying potential impacts of a hazard on human populations as well as on the natural and built environments. Using examples of potential inundation from sea-level rise at global, regional, and local scales, the authors propose a conceptual framework of key cartographic considerations for maps, Web-based mashups, and geovisualizations that depict risk. The cartographic framework presented here may be extended to other risks of an ambiguous or fuzzy nature and may be used to organize key future research areas for hazard or risk mapping in general.

Integrating sea level rise into development suitability analysis

“…Incorporating floodplain areas and giving weight to areas more likely to flood would further improve this analysis. In addition to the uncertainties associated with predicting sea level rise, there is also uncertainty in visually communicating natural hazards and the difficulty in representing uncertainty in maps (Kostelnick et al, 2013). Because of the complexity in representing uncertainty, it is easy to present an overly simplified representation of risk.…”

“…It is dependent on the accuracy of sea level rise projections, and there is uncertainty associated with all climate models. The bathtub model assumes that sea-level rise will be uniform across the region, when it will be dependent on the coastline and environmental variables (Kostelnick et al, 2013). A more accurate model of sea level rise would account for bathymetry, tidal patterns, coastal geomorphology, among other factors.…”

“…Rising sea levels are associated with more frequent acute weather events, such as typhoons and hurricanes, storm surges, and higher levels of precipitation (Balk et al, 2009;FitzGerald, Fenster, Argow, & Buynevich, 2008). Additionally, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with these predictions, making planning for sea level rise and more extreme weather events challenging (Meo, 1991;Kostelnick, McDermott, Rowley, & Bunnyfield, 2013 Sea level rise poses a serious threat and is already affecting coastal areas (Williams, 2013). Rising sea levels result in inundation and coastal erosion and may substantially alter beaches and barrier islands (FitzGerald et al, 2008;London & Volonte, 1991).…”

Variable Grid Method: An Intuitive Approach for Simultaneously Quantifying and Visualizing Spatial Data and Uncertainty

“…Couclelis ; Kostelnick et al ; Kwakkel et al ; MacEachren et al ; Rae et al ). As a result, spatial and spatio‐temporal data all play larger roles in informing decisions related to today's critical issues, such as climate change, energy security, water access, wildlife conservation, risk assessments, human health issues, and others (Kardos et al ; Kostelnick et al ; Kwakkel et al ). However, spatial and spatio‐temporal data are inherently uncertain, potentially affecting the credibility of research, management, and policy that utilize them (e.g.…”

Adaptive Planning for Transportation Corridors Threatened by Sea Level Rise

“…The public seems to find these maps of sea level rise and potential impacts, including interactive maps online, the most useful way to understand climate change effects (16,17,18,19,20). Because there is considerable uncertainty in how much sea levels might rise, the types and costs of impacts, and when certain elevations and impacts will occur, many modeling and mapping projects attempt to display uncertainty and variability (18).…”