A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050

Abstract

The notion that global agricultural output needs to double by 2050 is oft repeated. Using a new International Agricultural Prospects (iAP) Model, to project global agricultural consumption and production, we find in favour of a future where aggregate agricultural consumption (in tonnes) increases more modestly, by around 69 per cent (1.3 per cent per year) from 2010 to 2050. The principal driver of this result is a deceleration in population growth in the decades ahead. Per capita income growth and changing demographics (generally ageing population) have significant but secondary roles in spurring growth in agricultural consumption, as does our projected growth in the use of agricultural feedstocks to meet the growth we envisage in biofuel demand. Worldwide (but not equally everywhere), crop yield growth has generally slowed over the past decade or so. Notwithstanding a projected continuance of this slowdown, the prospective improvements in crop productivity are still sufficient to reduce per capita cropland use, such that land devoted to crops would need to increase by less than 10 per cent. Even in our upper-bound (highconsumption) scenario, we estimate that there remains sufficient productive agricultural land to more than meet the demand without ploughing-in additional forestdominated lands.

Sustainable intensification of agriculture for human prosperity and global sustainability

“…It is the world’s single largest driver of global environmental change (Tilman et al 2001; Foley et al 2005; Godfray and Garnett 2014; Kuyper and Struik 2014) and, at the same time, is most affected by these changes (IPCC 2014). Agriculture is the key to attaining the UN Sustainable Development Goals of eradicating hunger and securing food for a growing world population of 9–10 billion by 2050, which may require an increase in global food production of between 60 and 110 % (Foley et al 2005; IAASTD 2008; Tilman et al 2011; Pardey et al 2014) in a world of rising global environmental risks. Agriculture is also the direct livelihood of 2.5 billion smallholder farmers (FAO 2013a), and the resilience of these livelihoods to rising shocks and stresses is currently gravely under-addressed (FAO 2013b).…”

“…At the same time, with rising living standards of the growing middle class, diets are shifting towards more livestock products that require more land and water resources than vegetarian sources of nutrition. In order to feed the world in 2050, global food production may have to increase by 60–110 % (Pretty 2008; IAASTD 2008; Tilman et al 2011; Ray et al 2013; Pardey et al 2014). The challenge is further complicated by the need not only to produce more, but also to manage the entire food supply chain much more efficiently, reducing waste which has reached unacceptable proportions (estimated at 30%) along with promoting better distribution, access, and nutrition (FAO 2011a).…”

IoT Devices vs. Drones for Data Collection in Agriculture

“…This huge increase is to be generated primarily by the expected number of 9 billion inhabitants (Pardey et al, 2014). In order to meet these huge agrarian needs, the latest technologies are implemented, which are referred to by the terms 'AgriTech' or 'Precision Agriculture'.…”

Impact of atrazine prohibition on the sustainability of weed management in Wisconsin maize production

“…Global crop production must increase substantially over the next several decades to feed a growing population earning more income . Weed management is a key part of crop production.…”

“…Global crop production must increase substantially over the next several decades to feed a growing population earning more income. 1,2 Weed management is a key part of crop production. Potential crop losses due to weeds are estimated to be 12% in the United States 3 and average about 34% globally, although actual estimated losses are reduced to 8.5% by using manual or mechanical weeding and herbicides, and are likely lower in developed nations.…”