A bioeconomic approach to assess the impact of an alien invasive insect on timber supply and harvesting: a case study with Sirex noctilio in eastern Canada

Abstract

This study presents a model that assesses the potential impact of a new alien insect species, Sirex noctilio Fabricius, on pine timber supply and harvest activities in eastern Canada. We integrate the spread of S. noctilio with a broad-scale growth and harvest allocation model. Projections of pine mortality range between 25 Â 10 6 and 115 Â 10 6 m 3 over 20 years depending on S. noctilio spread and impact assumptions. Our model suggests Ontario could experience the highest, most immediate losses (78% of the potential losses across eastern Canada), with Quebec sustaining most of the rest of the losses over the next 20 years. Potential losses of $86 to $254 million per year are simulated after 20 years. The net present value of total harvest losses after 28 years of outbreak ranges between $0.7 to $2.1 billion. Adaptation policies decrease shortterm losses by 46%-55% and delay larger harvest failures by 9-11 years. Without harvest adaptation, failures to maintain annual allowable cut levels may occur once the total area infested exceeds 15 Â 10 6 ha. While better understanding and representing S. noctilio behaviour will involve a significant effort, there is a strong demand by policy makers for this kind of information.Résumé : Cette étude présente un modèle qui évalue l'impact potentiel d'une nouvelle espèce d'insecte exotique, Sirex noctilio Fabricius, sur les stocks de bois de pin et les activités de récolte dans l'est du Canada. Les auteurs ont intégré la propagation de S. noctilio à un modèle de croissance à grande échelle et d'allocation de la récolte. Les projections concernant la mortalité du pin varient de 25 Â 10 6 and 115 Â 10 6 sur 20 ans selon les hypothèses de propagation et d'impact de S. noctilio. Leur modèle indique que l'Ontario pourrait subir les pertes les plus élevées très tôt (78 % des pertes potentielles de tout l'est du Canada) et le Québec, presque toutes les pertes à venir au cours de la période s'étendant sur les 20 prochaines années. Les pertes annuelles pourraient atteindre 86-254 millions $ après 20 ans. La valeur actualisée nette des pertes totales de réc-olte après 28 années d'épidémie varie de 0,7 à 2,1 milliards $. Des stratégies d'adaptation diminueraient les pertes à court terme de 46-55 % et retarderaient les pires récoltes de 9-11 ans. Sans adaptation de la récolte, l'incapacité à maintenir les niveaux de possibilité annuelle de coupe pourrait survenir lorsque la superficie totale infestée dépassera 15 Â 10 6 ha. Bien que d'importants efforts restent à faire pour mieux comprendre et représenter le comportement de S. noctilio, il y a une forte demande de la part des décideurs pour ce type d'informations.[Traduit par la Rédaction]

Zig-zagging across Central Europe: recent range extension, dispersal speed and larval hosts of Aproceros leucopoda (Hymenoptera, Argidae) in Germany

“…The speed of range expansion in Canada is given as 50 km/yr (CABI 2014). The average speed for Sirex noctilio Fabricius, 1793 (Siricidae), a woodwasp invasive in South America, has been estimated as 30-50 km/yr (Yemshanov et al 2009). Smith (1996) summarized distribution data for the invasive Asian woodwasp Eriotremex formosanus (Matsumura, 1912), which in the United States was first observed in southern Georgia and in northern Florida in 1974.…”

Predicting Understory Species Richness from Stand and Management Characteristics Using Regression Trees

“…However, even though carbon storage and timber are often priority forest management objectives; they can conflict with overall biodiversity conservation objectives [58]. Furthermore, geospatial methods and models [2,3,10,22] are increasingly using available forest inventory data to estimate these ecosystem services, but these data are heavily weighted towards overstory tree and stand characteristics. As a result, our approach and model provide a repeatable and rapid means for estimating understory biodiversity, such as herbaceous richness, and to enhance these methods that quantify the trade-offs among these different, and often conflicting, ecosystem services.…”

“…Available, national-level forest inventory systems such as the United States' Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA), Canada's National Forest Inventory system, and the European Forest Inventory Database have traditionally been used to monitor and evaluate changes in forest ecosystems over time with an emphasis on timber production [1][2][3]. These inventory systems generally consist of permanent plots from which tree and other ancillary stand data are collected periodically.…”

Economic analysis of forest insect pests in Canada

“…Nonetheless, little work has been done in Canada. Yemshanov et al (2009) is a unique example of a detailed Canadian study that was conducted recently. They assessed the impact of the pine woodwasp (Sirex noctilio), a new alien species detected in the United States of America in 2004 and in eastern Canada in 2005, and evaluated the feasibility of alternative harvesting policies.…”