A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850

Abstract

This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with modelbased posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finland's population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual population series of such length available.

The long-term success of mandatory vaccination laws at implementing the first vaccination campaign in 19thcentury rural Finland

“…There were a few years with >100% vaccination coverage, which are likely the result of population movement. Birth records are unlikely the cause of vaccine coverage reaching over 100% as these have been validated by independent studies (45,46). Every five to ten years we had review tables of age-specific cohort sizes per parish from the historical records which confirmed our annually estimated cohort sizes.…”

The Long-Term Success of Mandatory Vaccination Laws After Implementing the First Vaccination Campaign in 19th Century Rural Finland

“…There were a few years with >100% vaccination coverage, which was likely the result of population movement. Birth records are unlikely to be the cause of vaccine coverage reaching over 100% as these have been validated by independent studies ( 45 , 46 ). For every 5–10 years we had review tables of age-specific cohort sizes per parish from the historical records, which confirmed our annually estimated cohort sizes.…”

Transitions through the dynamics of adaptive cycles: Evolution of the Finnish agrifood system

“…This climatically unfavourable period lasted for several centuries (Huhtamaa and Helama, 2017 date the period to 1220-1650) and caused reoccurring harvest losses. During the Great Death Years, approximately 20%-30% of the Finnish population (originally half a million) was wiped out (Muroma, 1991;Voutilainen et al, 2020). Even though cold summers caused food shortages and famine all over northern Europe during this time, the destruction was most complete in Finland.…”