A Bayesian Multivariate Hierarchical Growth Curve Model to Examine Cumulative Socio-Economic (Dis)Advantage among Childless Adults and Parents

Abstract

Childlessness and socio-economic well-being interact dynamically throughout the life course, possibly resulting in an accumulation of socio-economic (dis)advantage. Methods commonly used to investigate this hypothesis are unable to simultaneously acknowledge that childlessness entails a heterogeneous and processual 'non-event' which interrelates with multiple life domains. I use Bayesian multivariate hierarchical growth curve modelling to facilitate synchronous incorporation of these substantive complexities. I construct prospective interdependent life course trajectories of socio-economic well-being for eventual parents and permanently childless adults; distinguishing voluntary, involuntary, circumstantial and indecisive childlessness. Using 1970 British Cohort Study data, I find that parents and voluntarily childless adults are more satisfied with life than non-voluntarily childless adults. Voluntarily and circumstantially childless women earn most and mothers least, while fathers outearn childless men. (Dis)advantage in economic and male subjective well-being accumulates throughout the life course. Group differences in partnerships, employ-This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.