A Bayesian model of fisheries discards with flexible structure and priors defined by experts

Maeda, Eduardo Eiji; Mäntyniemi, Samu; Despoti, Smaragda; Musumeci, Claudia; Vassilopoulou, Vassiliki; Στεργίου, Κωνσταντίνος Ι.; Giannoulaki, Marianna; Ligas, Alessandro; Kuikka, Sakari

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.10.007

Cited by 16 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…As it is impossible to completely avoid unwanted catches, developing models to identify the most suitable fishing grounds to avoid them will be critical for maintaining the competitiveness as well as acceptability of the European fishing industry. To improve the performance of such models while at the same time allowing an easier assimilation and stronger legitimacy of the tools at local levels, researchers have created a framework for combining stakeholders' knowledge with a Bayesian model of fishery discards (Maeda et al, 2017). This framework allows fishermen to input their prior knowledge of the fishing grounds into the model (i.e., to indicate in which areas they think by-catches are high), to then combine it with observed data and provide posterior probabilities of fishery discards in the form of maps.…”

Section: Actionable Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Black Boxes and the Role of Modeling in Environmental Policy Making

Maeda

Haapasaari

Helle

et al. 2021

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Modeling is essential for modern science, and science-based policies are directly affected by the reliability of model outputs. Artificial intelligence has improved the accuracy and capability of model simulations, but often at the expense of a rational understanding of the systems involved. The lack of transparency in black box models, artificial intelligence based ones among them, can potentially affect the trust in science driven policy making. Here, we suggest that a broader discussion is needed to address the implications of black box approaches on the reliability of scientific advice used for policy making. We argue that participatory methods can bridge the gap between increasingly complex scientific methods and the people affected by their interpretations

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Section: Actionable Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Black Boxes and the Role of Modeling in Environmental Policy Making

Maeda

Haapasaari

Helle

et al. 2021

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…those subject to quotas and species with a minimum conservation reference size in the Mediterranean; see Reg. EC No 1967, it is essential to know the spatial patterns of the juvenile stage to characterize areas that may have high quantities and persistence of unwanted catches (Paradinas et al 2016, Maeda et al 2017, Pennino et al 2017.…”

Section: Fishing Impact Assessment and Management Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Size-dependent survival of European hake juveniles in the Mediterranean Sea

et al. 2020

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Most studies on European hake focus on the recruitment process and nursery areas, whereas the information is comparatively limited on the ecology of the juvenile stage (ca. second year of life)—the one most exploited by the Mediterranean trawl fisheries. Using information of the MEDITS programme, we provide a spatial and temporal assessment of the influence of body size and growth on hake survival from recruits (age 0) to juveniles (age 1), along with the impact of surface temperature and chlorophyll variability. At a biogeographic scale, size-dependent survival is supported, with areas with higher mean length of recruits and juveniles yielding higher survival. A similar pattern was observed at interannual level in some western Mediterranean areas, also mediated by a density-dependent effect on growth. However, the most recurrent inter-annual pattern was a negative effect of size on survival, which could be attributed to potential ontogenetic changes in catchability and underrepresentation of intra-annual recruitment pulses that are seasonally inaccessible to the MEDITS survey. Results also evidence that survival in the Alboran and Adriatic seas is dependent on the primary production variability, and that Corsica and Sardinia could be potential feeding grounds receiving juveniles from neighbouring areas. The present study reveals the importance of size- and growth-dependent survival in the juvenile stage of European hake in the Mediterranean Sea.

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“…The main imperative in selecting the appropriate analytical technique was the integration of both, quantitative and qualitative variables (see Table 1 above), which were identified to influence schools' water usage. In this context, Bayesian Networks (BNs) modelling has proven to be effective in relation to a range of environmental systems/processes modelling (Bonotto et al, 2018;Borsuk et al, 2004;Liu et al, 2018;Maeda et al, 2017;Martín de Santa Olalla et al, 2007;Rigosi et al, 2015;Ticehurst et al, 2007;Wijesiri et al, 2018). In fact, Bayesian statistical methods have gained relatively little attention, although they have been used for scenario-based water demand modelling.…”

Section: Selection Of Analytical Techniquementioning

confidence: 99%

Fees and governance: Towards sustainability in water resources management at schools in post-apartheid South Africa

Booysen

Wijesiri

Ripunda

et al. 2019

Sustainable Cities and Society

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Water scarcity is increasingly staking a claim next to energy as a threat to the sustainability of large cities, especially in developing countries with limited resources. The recent crisis brought on by Cape Town's "Day Zero" drought created the impetus to expand on existing research on water demand management to include analysis of school usage patterns and key determinants thereof. With the effects of apartheid still visible in society and in school infrastructure coupled with the high water usage rates at schools, this paper evaluates the impact of school affluence (whether it is fee-paying or not, and self-governing or not) on water usage. We find that poor schools use substantially more water, partially because of poor maintenance, with mean water effi-ciencies of poor schools around 50% and 80% for affluent schools. Bayesian models were used to further de-termine which characteristics of a school are good proxies for the higher usage to help administrators and policy makers in the resource constrained educational environment. In addition to the obvious detrimental impact of poor maintenance, the results also point an incriminatory finger at early morning-school usage, early afternoon usage, and Saturday usage.T Abstract and references of paper accepted for publication in Sustainable Cities and Society. Published: https://doi.

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A Bayesian model of fisheries discards with flexible structure and priors defined by experts

Cited by 16 publications

References 35 publications

Black Boxes and the Role of Modeling in Environmental Policy Making

Black Boxes and the Role of Modeling in Environmental Policy Making

Size-dependent survival of European hake juveniles in the Mediterranean Sea

Fees and governance: Towards sustainability in water resources management at schools in post-apartheid South Africa

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