A Bayesian Estimation of Child Labour in India

Abstract

Child labour in India involves the largest number of children in any single country in the world. In 2011, 11.8 million children between the ages of 5 and 17 were main workers (those working more than 6 mo) according to the Indian Census. Our estimate of child labour using a combined-data approach is slightly higher than that: 13.2 million (11.4–15.2 million) for ages 5 to 17. There are various opinions on how best to measure the prevalence of child labour. In this study, we use the International Labour Organization (ILO)‘s methodology to define hazardousness and combine it with the most recent United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)‘s time thresholds for economic work and household chores. The specific aims of this study are to estimate the prevalence of child labour in the age group 5 to 17 and to suggest a combined-data approach using Bayesian inference to improve the accuracy of the child labour estimation. This study combines the National Sample Survey on Employment and Unemployment 2011/12 and the India Human Development Survey 2011/12 and compares the result with the reported figures for the incidence of child labour from the Indian Census. Our unique combined-data approach provides a way to improve accuracy, smooth the variations between ages and provide reliable estimates of the scale of child labour in India.

Predicting Child-Labour Risks by Norms in India

“…The predicted proportion of child labour in the 17 states was 0.06 (mean, 95% PI [0.057, 0.063]), using the time threshold obtained through the model. This was much higher than the estimate of child labour using the international threshold of working hours, which was 0.04 of the child population in India in the same year (Kim et al, 2020). In addition, boys appeared more likely to participate in the labour force (0.07, 95% PI [0.066, 0.074]) than girls (0.05 [0.046, 0.053]).…”

“…The model estimates a time threshold over which labour can bring significant harm to children, thereby removing the reliance on the conventional time thresholds that typically assumed labour is harmful to children in India. Accordingly, one hour or more work per week among children aged 5-11 and 38.5 (Desai and Vanneman, 2018) provides an accurate number of working hours, it lacks the information documenting the working hours of children in unpaid household services (Kim et al, 2020). Furthermore, economic activity is taken to mean working more than 30 days a year in an attempt to exclude short-term seasonal work from the category of child labour.…”

“…Children’s unpaid household work is a considerable part of child labour, and it is especially relevant for girls. Although the Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS) 2011/2012 (Desai and Vanneman, 2018) provides an accurate number of working hours, it lacks the information documenting the working hours of children in unpaid household services (Kim et al, 2020). Furthermore, economic activity is taken to mean working more than 30 days a year in an attempt to exclude short-term seasonal work from the category of child labour.…”