A Bayesian approach to construct bow tie diagrams for risk evaluation

Badreddine, Ahmed; Amor, Nahla Ben

doi:10.1016/j.psep.2012.03.005

Cited by 56 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…There are several works on quantitative accident analysis models that support predicting and preventing accidents . System Hazard Identification, Prediction and Prevention (SHIPP) is one of these models that combines qualitative and quantitative analyses to provide a comprehensive approach with updating and prediction capabilities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systemic accident analysis models: A comparison study between AcciMap, FRAM, and STAMP

Yousefi

Hernández

Peña

2018

Process Safety Progress

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Nowadays, different accident causation models are used to explain how accidents happen, whereas most of them were developed long time ago. There is an argument that significant changes have occurred in the industry and traditional models may have limitations in identifying causes of accidents in modern industry within complex socio-technical environment. Consequently, new accident models based on systems theory have been introduced, but they are mainly used by academic researchers. Among systemic accident models, Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP), Functional Resonance Accident Model (FRAM), and AcciMap methods have been identified as the most frequently cited models.This article presents a case study-based comparison of these three models. STAMP and FRAM are used to analyze the Chevron Richmond refinery accident, which is investigated by U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB). CSB investigation team developed an AcciMap of the accident.The results are compared and differences are discussed. In conclusion, STAMP is likely to be more instrumental and comprehensive in identifying contributing factors and generating recommendations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systemic accident analysis models: A comparison study between AcciMap, FRAM, and STAMP

Yousefi

Hernández

Peña

2018

Process Safety Progress

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“…These diagrams can also be adapted to the DIPSR framework. Recently, BNs have been used in combination with bow tie diagrams to overcome their purely depictive capabilities by adding probabilities and conditional dependencies between components (Badreddine and Amor, 2013;Khakzad et al, 2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative environmental risk assessments in the context of marine spatial management: current approaches and some perspectives

Stelzenmüller¹,

Fock²,

Gimpel³

et al. 2014

ICES Journal of Marine Science

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Marine spatial planning (MSP) requires spatially explicit environmental risk assessment (ERA) frameworks with quantitative or probabilistic measures of risk, enabling an evaluation of spatial management scenarios. ERAs comprise the steps of risk identification, risk analysis, and risk evaluation. A review of ERAs in in the context of spatial management revealed a synonymous use of the concepts of risk, vulnerability and impact, a need to account for uncertainty and a lack of a clear link between risk analysis and risk evaluation. In a case study, we addressed some of the identified gaps and predicted the risk of changing the current state of benthic disturbance by bottom trawling due to future MSP measures in the German EEZ of the North Sea. We used a quantitative, dynamic, and spatially explicit approach where we combined a Bayesian belief network with GIS to showcase the steps of risk characterization, risk analysis, and risk evaluation. We distinguished 10 benthic communities and 6 international fishing fleets. The risk analysis produced spatially explicit estimates of benthic disturbance, which was computed as a ratio between relative local mortality by benthic trawling and the recovery potential after a trawl event. Results showed great differences in spatial patterns of benthic disturbance when accounting for different environmental impacts of the respective fleets. To illustrate a risk evaluation process, we simulated a spatial shift of the international effort of two beam trawl fleets, which are affected the most by future offshore wind development. The Bayesian belief network (BN) model was able to predict the proportion of the area where benthic disturbance likely increases. In conclusion, MSP processes should embed ERA frameworks which allow for the integration of multiple risk assessments and the quantification of related risks as well as uncertainties at a common spatial scale.

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“…and Badreddine et al . presented a methodology to map bow‐tie (combination of a fault tree and an event tree) into Bayesian network for dynamic safety analysis .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability analysis by mapping probabilistic importance factors into bayesian belief networks for making decision in water deluge system

Guetarni

Aissani

Châtelet

et al. 2018

Process Safety Progress

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Liquid petroleum gas (LPG) is one area where catastrophic release scenarios have occurred. For this reason, preventive, and protective barriers have to be installed in order to reduce the occurrence and the severity of these scenarios. This article addresses an analysis of deluge system barrier and proposes a making decision process to ensure a high level of reliability, availability, maintainability, and safety (RAMS) using a robust Reliability Analysis with conditional probabilities. To achieve this RAMS target, a methodology for converting fault tree analysis (FTA) in continuous time using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation to Bayesian belief network (BBN) is developed. The probabilistic importance factors (PIFs) for critical components ranking and decision making are also mapped using BBN inferences in Water Deluge Systems (WDS) with an optimization aim using redundancy or maintenance tasks. This analysis illustrates the helpfulness of mapping PIFs into BBN for making a decision in any critical technological infrastructures.

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A Bayesian approach to construct bow tie diagrams for risk evaluation

Cited by 56 publications

References 18 publications

Systemic accident analysis models: A comparison study between AcciMap, FRAM, and STAMP

Systemic accident analysis models: A comparison study between AcciMap, FRAM, and STAMP

Quantitative environmental risk assessments in the context of marine spatial management: current approaches and some perspectives

Reliability analysis by mapping probabilistic importance factors into bayesian belief networks for making decision in water deluge system

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