A Bayesian Approach to Adult Human Age Estimation from Dental Observations by Johanson's Age Changes

Lucy, David; Aykroyd, Robert G.; Pollard, A. M.; Solheim, Tore

doi:10.1520/jfs15411j

Cited by 125 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Age estimation methods do not produce specific point estimates of estimated age, but rather, estimated intervals of age (e.g., [45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55]. Thus, the extreme of the age range nearest to the chronological age was used to calculate the bias and the absolute error of the estimation.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comparison of three established age estimation methods on an adult Spanish sample

et al. 2011

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Most current methods for adult skeletal age-at-death estimation are based on American samples comprising individuals of European and African ancestry. Our limited understanding of population variability hampers our efforts to apply these techniques to various skeletal populations around the world, especially in global forensic contexts. Further, documented skeletal samples are rare, limiting our ability to test our techniques. The objective of this paper is to test three pelvic macroscopic methods (1-Suchey-Brooks; 2-Lovejoy; 3-Buckberry and Chamberlain) on a documented modern Spanish sample. These methods were selected because they are popular among Spanish anthropologists and because they never have been tested in a Spanish sample. The study sample consists of 80 individuals (55 ♂ and 25 ♀) of known sex and age from the Valladolid collection. Results indicate that in all three methods, levels of bias and inaccuracy increase with age. The Lovejoy method performs poorly (27%) compared with Suchey-Brooks (71%) and Buckberry and Chamberlain (86%). However, the levels of correlation between phases and chronological ages are low and comparable in the three methods (< 0.395). The apparent accuracy of the Suchey-Brooks and Buckberry and Chamberlain methods is largely based on the broad width of the methods' estimated intervals. This study suggests that before systematic application of these three methodologies in Spanish populations, further statistical modeling and research into the co-variance of chronological age with morphological change is necessary. Future methods should be developed specific to various world populations, and should allow for both precision and flexibility in age estimation. However, the levels of correlation between phases and chronological ages are low and comparable in the three methods (< 0.395). The apparent accuracy of the Suchey-Brooks and Buckberry and Chamberlain methods is largely based on the broad width of the methods' estimated intervals. This study suggests that before systematic application of these three methodologies in Spanish populations, further statistical modeling and research into the co-variance of chronological age with morphological change is necessary. Future methods should be developed specific to various world populations, and should allow for both precision and flexibility in age estimation.3

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comparison of three established age estimation methods on an adult Spanish sample

et al. 2011

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“…See, for instance, Masset (1982, 1996); Frankenberg (1992, 1994); Lucy et al (1996); Konigsberg et al (1997); Aykroyd et al (1997Aykroyd et al ( , 1999; Hoppa and Vaupel (2002b). Several authors have suggested that regression techniques result in systematic under-or over-aging of skeletons (Konigsberg and Frankenberg, 1994;Konigsberg et al, 1997;Aykroyd et al, 1997Aykroyd et al, , 1999.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Consequently, a variety of other statistical methods have been explored with the aim of eliminating this apparent bias (e.g. Konigsberg and Frankenberg (1992, 1994; BouquetAppel and Masset (1996); Lucy et al (1996); Konigsberg et al (1997); Aykroyd et al (1997Aykroyd et al ( , 1999; Boldsen et al (2002); Konigsberg and Herrman (2002)). This research has culminated in the book 'Paleodemography', edited by Hoppa and Vaupel (2002b), in which the authors conclude that aging of skeletal remains should utilise methods based on an application of Bayes' theorem in order to obtain age-at-death estimates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of adult skeletal age‐at‐death: statistical assumptions and applications

Samworth¹,

Gowland²

2006

Intl J of Osteoarchaeology

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We examine the statistical assumptions underlying different techniques of estimating the age-at-death of a skeleton from one or more age indicators. The preferred method depends on which property of the distribution of the data in the reference sample is preserved in the skeleton to be aged. In cases where the conditional distribution of age given indicator is preserved, we provide 'look-up' tables giving essentially unbiased age estimates and prediction intervals, using a large reference sample and the auricular surface and pubic symphysis age indicators. Where this assumption is violated, but the conditional distribution of indicator given age is preserved, we find that an alternative model which attempts to capture the biological process of development of an individual has some attractive features, which may make it suitable for further study.

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“…The most used methods include simple linear regression, multiple linear regression [9], classical calibration [10], methods based on analysis of nearest neighbours [11], inverse linear calibration, nonlinear inverse calibration, curvilinear regression [12] and Bayesian approaches [13][14]. This latter approach is not entirely new, having already appeared in a somewhat different framework, in the literature on fisheries, with the name of ``age length key''.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These samples and the scoring system of the two indicators were used by Schmitt et al (2002), applying the methodology proposed by Lucy et al (1996). In the present work, the same data was processed using a modification of the empirical method proposed by Lucy et al (2002).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of age at death from the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface of the ilium using a smoothing procedure

Martins¹,

Oliveira²,

Schmitt³

2012

Forensic Science International

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We discuss here the estimation of age at death from two indicators (pubic symphysis and the sacro-pelvic surface of the ilium) based on four different osteological series from Portugal, GreatBritain, South Africa or USA (European origin). These samples and the scoring system of the two indicators were used by Schmitt et al. (2002), applying the methodology proposed by Lucy et al. (1996). In the present work, the same data was processed using a modification of the empirical method proposed by Lucy et al. (2002). The various probability distributions are estimated from training data by using kernel density procedures and Jackknife methodology. Bayes's theorem is then used to produce the posterior distribution from which point and interval estimates may be made. This statistical approach reduces the bias of the estimates to less than 70% of what was obtained by the initial method. This reduction going up to 52% if knowledge of sex of the individual is available, and produces an age for all the individuals that improves age at death assessment. Estimation of age at death from the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface of the ilium using a smoothing procedure AbstractWe discuss here the estimation of age at death from two indicators (pubic symphysis and the sacro-pelvic surface of the ilium) based on four different osteological series from Portugal, Great-Britain, South Africa or USA (European origin). These samples and the scoring system of the two indicators were used by Schmitt et al. (2002), applying the methodology proposed by Lucy et al. (1996). In the present work, the same data was processed using a modification of the empirical method proposed by Lucy et al. (2002). The various probability distributions are estimated from training data by using kernel density procedures and Jackknife methodology. Bayes's theorem is then used to produce the posterior distribution from which point and interval estimates may be made. This statistical approach reduces the bias of the estimates to less than 70% of what was obtained by the initial method. This reduction going up to 52% if knowledge of sex of the individual is available, and produces an age for all the individuals that improves age at death assessment.

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A Bayesian Approach to Adult Human Age Estimation from Dental Observations by Johanson's Age Changes

Cited by 125 publications

References 13 publications

A comparison of three established age estimation methods on an adult Spanish sample

A comparison of three established age estimation methods on an adult Spanish sample

Estimation of adult skeletal age‐at‐death: statistical assumptions and applications

Estimation of age at death from the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface of the ilium using a smoothing procedure

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