A Bayesian approach for estimating phosphorus export and delivery rates with the SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model

Kim, Dongkyun; Kaluskar, Samarth; Mugalingam, Shan; Blukacz-Richards, Agnes; Long, Tanya; Morley, Andrew D.; Arhonditsis, George B.

doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2016.12.003

Cited by 36 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Our Trait 3 rates are low compared with the corresponding export coefficient category (Factories and Urban, 138 to 283 mg m -2 yr -1 ; Donnelly et al, 2020), but then none of our catchments are fully occupied by this type of land use. This is not an exhaustive comparison with present day values, for example similar values are reported in an application of the SPARROW model, used to predict TP export and delivery rates, for a catchment in Ontario (Kim et al, 2017), but does show that our P yield records are consistent with modern direct observations. These reconstructed P yield histories are useful for any attempt to model long-term landscape macronutrient cycling, whether simple process models (Boyle et al 2013b(Boyle et al , 2015 or more complex coupled soil-ecosystem models (Davies et al 2016), and provide an opportunity to critically test our understanding of long-term terrestrial ecosystem dynamics.…”

Section: Holocene Landscape P Supplysupporting

confidence: 56%

Towards a history of Holocene P dynamics for the northern hemisphere using lake sediment geochemical records

Moyle¹,

Boyle²,

Chiverrell³

2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Present day lake water phosphorus (P) enrichment and accelerated P cycling are changes superimposed on a dynamic Holocene history of landscape recovery from glaciation, changes in climate, and long-term low-intensity human activity. Knowledge of the history of long-term P dynamics is essential for understanding present-day landscape P export and for managing both terrestrial and aquatic environments. This study is the first attempt to constrain the timing and magnitude of terrestrial changes in Holocene P dynamics across the Northern Hemisphere using lake sediment records. Here we reconstruct trajectories in terrestrial Holocene P dynamics for the Northern Hemisphere. We apply a simple process model to published lake sediment geochemical P records from 24 sites, producing records of landscape P yield and reconstructing lake water total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. Individual site trajectories of landscape P yield and lake water TP vary systematically, with differences attributable to local landscape development history. Three distinct traits are apparent. Mountain sites with minimal direct human impact show falling P supply and conform to conceptual models of natural soil development (Trait 1). Lowland sites where substantial (pre-)historic agriculture was present show progressively increasing P supply (Trait 2). Lowland sites may also show a rapid acceleration in P supply over the last few centuries, where high intensity land use, including settlements and farming, are present (Trait 3). Where data availability permitted comparison, our reconstructed TP records agree well with both monitored lake water TP data and diatom inferred TP, and our sediment inferred P yields are comparable to reported catchment export coefficients. Our reconstructions form the first systematic assessment of average terrestrial P export for the Northern Hemisphere over the Holocene and provide the empirical data needed for constraining long-term landscape P cycling models and values for terrestrial P export that could be used for ocean P cycling models. The long-term perspective provided by our sediment-inferred TP can be used to identify pre-disturbance baselines for lake water quality, information essential to target-driven lake management. We find the first detectable anthropogenic impacts on P cycling ca. 6000 BP, with more substantial impacts as early as 3000 BP. Consequently, to characterise pre-disturbance lake P conditions at Trait 2 and Trait 3 sites it is necessary to consider time periods before the arrival of early farmers. Our use of trait classifications has a predictive power for sites without sediment records, allowing prediction of TP baselines and P trajectories based on regional landscape development history.

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Section: Holocene Landscape P Supplysupporting

confidence: 56%

Towards a history of Holocene P dynamics for the northern hemisphere using lake sediment geochemical records

Moyle¹,

Boyle²,

Chiverrell³

2021

Preprint

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“…The advanced capacity of these models to characterize spatial patterns of nutrient fluxes is traded for their coarser temporal resolution, whereby daily nutrient loading outputs are replaced with long-term average, annual or decadal estimates of nutrient fluxes. This category of models include NEWS (Seitzinger et al, 2005), MESAW (Kaur et al, 2017), SPARROW (Smith et al, 1997) and its multiple augmentations over time (Grizzetti et al, 2005;Wellen et al, 2012;Dupas et al, 2015;Kim et al, 2017).…”

Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Owing to their parsimonious structure, these models can support statistically rigorous parameter identification from collected tributary water quality data and prior information of nutrient-mass input (and subsequently export) from different land uses, land-to-water coefficients, and instream attenuation rates (Zobrist and Reichert, 2006;Kim et al, 2017). Depending on the quality of spatial-temporal data, nutrient inputs per land use could be either represented as the total annual amount of applied mineral fertilizers, manure, and atmospheric deposition (Robertson and Saad, 2011), as the annual difference between applied and uptaken nutrients by crops (Grizzetti et al, 2005), or as the area occupied by specific land use/land cover (Kim et al, 2017). The land-tostream delivery coefficient can account for the unexplained spatial variability of nutrient fluxes due to landscape characteristics, and therefore the selection of the suitable predictors requires an iterative exploratory analysis of landscape covariates, such as catchment slope, soil permeability, texture, or even the mean expected mitigation effect of implemented BMPs (Robertson et al, 2011;Garcia et al, 2016).…”

Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of the current state of process-based and data-driven modelling: guidelines for Lake Erie managers and watershed modellers

et al. 2021

Self Cite

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We present a comprehensive evaluation of eleven process-based models to characterize the water cycle, nutrient fate and transport within a watershed context, and to find a robust and replicable way to optimize the modelling strategy for the Lake Erie watershed. Our primary objective is to review the conceptual/technical strengths and weaknesses of the individual models to reproduce surface runoff, groundwater, sediment transport, nutrient cycling, channel routing and collectively guide the management in Lake Erie Basin. Our analysis suggests that the available models either opted for simpler approximations of the multifaceted, non-linear dynamics of nutrient fate and transport and instead placed more emphasis on the advanced representation of the water cycle, or introduced a greater degree of biogeochemical complexity but simplified their strategies to recreate the role of critical hydrological processes. Notwithstanding its overparameterization problem, MIKE-SHE provides the most comprehensive 3D representation of the interplay between surface and subsurface hydrological processes with a fully dynamic description, whereby we can recreate the solute transport that infiltrates from the surface to the unsaturated soil layer and subsequently percolates into the saturated layer. Likewise, the physically based submodels designed to represent the sediment detachment and erosion/removal processes (DWSM, HBV-INCA, HSPF, HYPE and MIKE-SHE), offer a distinct alternative to USLE-type empirical strategies. The ability to explicitly simulate the daily plant growth (SWAT and APEX) coupled with a dynamic representation of soil P processes can be critical when evaluating the long-term watershed responses to various agricultural management strategies. While our propositions seem to favor the consideration of complex models that may lack the commensurate knowledge to properly characterize the underlying processes, we contend this issue can be counterbalanced by the joint consideration of simpler empirical models, under an ensemble framework, that can both constrain the plausible values of individual processes and validate macroscale patterns. Finally, our study discusses critical facets of the watershed modelling work in Lake Erie, such as the role of legacy P, the challenges in reproducing spring-freshet or event-flow conditions, and the dynamic characterization of water/nutrient cycles under the non-stationarity of a changing climate.

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“…Biophysical models provide a useful framework to capture interactions between different forms of capital and ES flows (Kim et al, 2017). Water-quality models can estimate how changing capital and ES management affect nitrogen loading to downstream endpoints of a watershed (Keeler et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reframing water-related ecosystem services flows

Lin¹,

Huang²,

Hadjikakou³

et al. 2021

Ecosystem Services

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To sustain water-dependent economic and socio-ecological systems, natural capital and its interactions with other capitals is gaining attention, but a clear understanding of how to manage natural capital sustainably and how to make decisions relevant to waterrelated ecosystem services is yet to be achieved. In this study, we extended the framing of water-related ecosystem service flows as a cycle, integrating water quantity and quality and capturing the flows of ecosystem services (i.e., green phase) and ecosystem disservices (i.e., red phase), and connecting natural capital, built capital, and beneficiaries. We applied this framework to the Jiulong River watershed in China, using hydrological models to model water quantity and quality based on historical observations and experimental data. Our results showed that, during the green phase, the interactions of natural capital and built capital significantly improved water quality in downstream areas with higher flows. During the red phase, built capital reduced ecosystem disservices by ~10% while natural capital further reduced it by over one half.Our framework can provide information for natural capital management, ecocompensation, and pollutant management relevant to water-related ecosystem services.

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A Bayesian approach for estimating phosphorus export and delivery rates with the SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model

Cited by 36 publications

References 60 publications

Towards a history of Holocene P dynamics for the northern hemisphere using lake sediment geochemical records

Towards a history of Holocene P dynamics for the northern hemisphere using lake sediment geochemical records

A review of the current state of process-based and data-driven modelling: guidelines for Lake Erie managers and watershed modellers

Reframing water-related ecosystem services flows

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