Density functional theory, coupled-cluster theory, and transition state theory are used to build a computational model of the kinetics of phosphine-free cobalt-catalyzed hydroformylation and hydrogenation of alkenes. The model provides very good agreement with experiment, and enables the factors that determine the selectivity and rate of catalysis to be determined. The turnover rate is mainly determined by the alkene coordination step.Cobalt-catalyzed hydroformylation, which was discovered 75 years ago based on earlier work at the Max Planck Institute for Coal Research, is the first reported metalcomplex-catalyzed industrial process. [1] Though rhodium catalysts have largely superseded cobalt systems because of greater efficiency, cobalt catalysts are cheaper, less toxic, and more thermally stable, and continue to be used. [2,3] Thus there continues to be much interest in the development of modified cobalt catalysts with increased activity, longevity, regioselectivity, and chemoselectivity especially with respect to avoiding wasteful alkene substrate hydrogenation. For each of these aspects of catalyst improvement, a detailed understanding of the hydroformylation mechanism is pivotal.Based on the mechanistic work of Heck and Breslow [4] and subsequent studies, [5] the hydroformylation mechanism with both rhodium and cobalt systems is quite well understood. Intermediates such as cobalt acyl tetracarbonyls [RCOCo(CO) 4 ] or phosphine derivatives thereof [RCOCo(-CO) 3 L] (where L = PR 3 ) have been detected under catalytic conditions, [4,6] and their reactivity studied. [7] The reactivity of the corresponding unsaturated intermediate [RCOCo(-CO) 2 L] obtained by flash photolysis has also been carefully examined. [8] Kinetics are available, in particular a systematic study [9] of the rate of hydroformylation of propene by [HCo(CO) 4 ], which gave the following empirical rate law: