A 50-year analysis of hydrological trends and processes in a Mediterranean catchment

Folton, Nathalie; Martin, E.; Arnaud, Patrick; L’Hermite, Pierre; Tolsa, Mathieu

doi:10.5194/hess-23-2699-2019

Cited by 22 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 56 publications

(60 reference statements)

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“…This increase in rainfall combined with the increasing contributions from the groundwater (included in the hydrological model) and the low water resources of the baseline may lead to those increments in percentage. In any case, the variability of changes between sub-basins is not an isolated case (Folton et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Currently, this database is used in this area due to its good performance (Pedro-Monzonís et al, 2016;Suárez-Almiñana et al, 2017;Madrigal et al, 2018;García-Romero et al, 2019), and it was needed for the bias correction of the climate projections (option A) and to test the calibration of the hydrological model. Thus, four points of each sub-basin ( Fig.…”

Section: Climate Change Projections and Historical Local Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The EVALHID module has available several rainfallrunoff models with different structural complexities and parametrizations, but all of them have been aggregated with semi-distributed applications at the sub-basin scale (García-Romero et al, 2019;Hernández Bedolla et al, 2019;Suárez-Almiñana et al, 2017).…”

Section: Aquatool Decision Support System Shell (Dsss)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin

Suárez-Almiñana¹,

Solera²,

Madrigal³

et al. 2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Climate change and its possible effects on water resources has become an increasingly near threat. Therefore, the study of these impacts in highly regulated systems and those suffering extreme events is essential to deal with them effectively. This study responds to the need for an effective method to integrate climate change projections into water planning and management analysis in order to guide the decision-making, taking into account drought risk assessments. Therefore, this document presents a general and adaptive methodology based on a modeling chain and correction processes, whose main outcomes are the impacts on future natural inflows, a drought risk indicator, and the simulation of future water storage in the water resources system (WRS). This method was applied in the Júcar River basin (JRB) due to its complexity and the multiannual drought events it suffers recurrently. The results showed a worrying decrease in future inflows, as well as a high probability (≈80 %) of being under 50 % of total capacity of the WRS in the near future. However, the uncertainty of the results was considerable from the mid-century onwards, indicating that the skill of climate projections needs to be improved in order to obtain more reliable results. Consequently, this paper also highlights the difficulties of developing this type of method, taking partial decisions to adapt them as far as possible to the basin in an attempt to obtain clearer conclusions on climate change impact assessments. Despite the high uncertainty, the results of the JRB call for action and the tool developed can be considered as a feasible and robust method to facilitate and support decision-making in complex basins for future water planning and management.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Climate Change Projections and Historical Local Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Aquatool Decision Support System Shell (Dsss)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin

Suárez-Almiñana¹,

Solera²,

Madrigal³

et al. 2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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show abstract

“…This increase in rainfall combined with the increasing contributions from the groundwater (contemplated in the hydrological model) and the reference period scarce in water resources may lead to that percentage increments in both cases (A and B). In any case, the variability of changes between sub-basins is not an isolated case (Folton et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Methodology based on modelling processes and the characterisation of natural flows for risk assessment and water management under the influence of climate change

Suárez-Almiñana¹,

Solera²,

Madrigal³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Climate change and its possible effects on water resources has become an increasingly near threat. Therefore, the study of these impacts in highly regulated systems and those suffering extreme events is essential to deal with them effectively. This paper responds to the need of an effective methodology that integrates the climate change projections into water planning and management to guide complex basin decision-making through drought risk and management assessments. In this study is presented an adaptive method based on a model chain and correction processes, where the main outcomes are the impacts on future natural inflows, a drought risk indicator and the simulation of the future water storage of the water resources system (WRS) under consideration. The proposed methodology was applied in the Júcar River Basin (JRB) due to its complexity and the multiannual drought events it goes through. The results shown a decreasing tendency of future inflows to the basin, and the drought risk indicator shows a high probability (≈ 80 %) of being under 50 % of total capacity of the WRS in the near future, but the uncertainty is considerable from the middle century onwards, indicating that an improvement in the skill of climate projections is required. Thus, this paper also highlights the difficulties of developing this type of methods, since the conclusions on climate change impact assessment depend on partial decisions taken during the methodological processes. However, the main results call for action in the JRB and the tool developed can be considered as a feasible option to facilitate and support decision-making in future water planning and management.

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“…To determine trends and test their significances, non-parametric methods were used, as recommended by Kundzewicz and Robson (2004) and applied in other studies (e.g., Folton et al, 2019).…”

Section: Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological trends and the evolution of catchment research in the Alptal valley, central Switzerland

Stähli

Seibert

Kirchner

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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When the observation of small headwater catchments in the pre-Alpine Alptal valley (central Switzerland) started in the late 1960s, the researchers were mainly interested in questions related to floods and forest management. Investigations of geomorphological processes in the steep torrent channels followed in the 1980s, along with detailed observations of biogeochemical and ecohydrological processes in individual forest stands. More recently, research in the Alptal has addressed the impacts of climate change on water supply and runoff generation. In this article, we describe, for the first time, the evolution of catchment research at Alptal, and present new analyses of longterm trends and short-term hydrologic behaviour. Hydrometeorological time series from the past 50 years show substantial interannual variability, but only minimal long-term trends, except for the 2 C increase in mean annual air temperature over the 50-year period, and a corresponding shift towards earlier snowmelt. Similar to previous studies in larger Alpine catchments, the decadal variations in mean annual runoff in Alptal's small research catchments reflect the long-term variability in annual precipitation. In the Alptal valley, the most evident hydrological trends were observed in late spring and are related to the substantial change in the duration of the snow cover. Streamflow and water quality are highly variable within and between hydrological events, suggesting rapid shifts in flow pathways and mixing, as well as changing connectivity of runoffgenerating areas. This overview illustrates how catchment research in the Alptal has evolved in response to changing societal concerns and emerging scientific questions.

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A 50-year analysis of hydrological trends and processes in a Mediterranean catchment

Cited by 22 publications

References 56 publications

Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin

Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin

Methodology based on modelling processes and the characterisation of natural flows for risk assessment and water management under the influence of climate change

Hydrological trends and the evolution of catchment research in the Alptal valley, central Switzerland

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