A 20 year forecast of water usage in electricity generation for South Africa amidst water scarce conditions

Abstract

Being a semi-arid country with limited fresh water resources and also a fossil fuel based energy intensive country, South Africa encounters the added pressure of allocating limited water resources. Roughly 90% of electricity in South Africa is generated from coal fired power plants that are located in semi-arid areas and use a combination of wet and dry cooling techniques. The paper aims to forecast water usage within coal based electricity generation in order to facilitate water management in water deficient parts of the country. Some of the older return to service (RTS) power plants which have been brought back to operation due to electricity shortages are water intensive and are located in water constrained water management areas. These power plants should be phased out gradually and replaced by higher efficiency dry cooled power plants -that are currently under construction -by the year 2020. Total water requirements could reach 370 gigalitres by the year 2021 from current levels of 360 gigalitres. Depending on the retirement of inefficient power plants, total water usage can be reduced by roughly 14%. Results show that management of water resources in the electricity generation sector can result in informed water allocations within water management areas. Proposed gradual retirement of the RTS fleet could result in a savings of 15% of the forecasted shortfall of 234 gigalitres by the year 2025. The deficit in electricity generation output caused by the retirement of the RTS fleet will have to be compensated by the simultaneous commissioning and operation of new build power plants. Such measures will provide much required water relief to water constrained water management areas. Overall increases in water usage until 2035 can be minimised if inefficient wet cooled power plants are gradually retired and if dry cooled power plants are more prominent.

Review on Main Issues Causing Deterioration of Water Quality and Water Scarcity: Case Study of South Africa

“…Agriculture in many places in the world is generally the biggest user of fresh water resources, there is need to find an appropriate arrangement in order to optimize the use of freshwater for irrigation purposes. Therefore, an adaptation of water resources systems is important to change society and environment (Barrow, 2016;Thopil and Pouris 2016;Majuru et al, 2016;Saldí as et al, 2016;Ceola et al, 2016). Urban and domestic sectors use 27 %, while mining and other industries account for 8 %, the remaining 3% are used by commercial forestry plantations as represented in Figure 1 (DWAF, 2004a).…”

“…Furthermore, solid wastes discharged in landfills may release materials that eventually leach into close water streams contributing to contamination [Oberholster and Ashton (2008)]. Unskilled labour operating in the plants is also another parameter that can influence water quality together with the outdated infrastructures as mentioned before (Rietveld et al, 2009;Snyman et al,2006;Thopil, and Pouris, 2016). Objectively, there is a strong need for major changes regarding water quality management strategies and improvement of treatment technology and urban infrastructures.…”

Prediction of the Energy Consumption Variation Trend in South Africa based on ARIMA, NGM and NGM-ARIMA Models

“…Sigauke et al [8] have used regression-seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (Reg-SARIMA-GARCH ) model to predict the daily peak electricity demand in South Africa, and the results show that the prediction error is 1.42%. Thopil et al [9] have predicted the water consumption of coal-fired power generation, and the results show that it will be decreased by 14% till 2021. Tsikata et al [10] analyzed the challenge that the electric power supply in South Africa will face and advocated more diversified energy environment.…”

Biosurfactant Producing Metallo-Phenolic Tolerant Microbial Consortia for Nitrification

“…Therefore, the recycling of treated water is vital to sustainability and the bulk use of water sources for human anthropogic activities. The forecasted demand for water in South Africa indicates that by year 2035, the consumption rate of water by various sectors and industries would've increased, as a result of the technologies currently being on an industrial scale [10,9]. Generally, with the conventional water treatment methods currently in place, efficiency and environmental sustainability are compromised.…”