A 1500-year reconstruction of annual mean temperature for temperate North America on decadal-to-multidecadal time scales

Trouet, Valérie; Díaz, Henry F.; Wahl, Eugene R.; Viau, A. E.; Graham, Rochelle; Graham, Nicholas E.; Cook, Edward R.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024008

Cited by 94 publications

(98 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Furthermore, they agree with instrumental data, CRUTEM4 Morice et al, 2012), and pollen and treering reconstructions (PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013;Trouet et al, 2013). All the reconstructions are presented as departures from the 1904-1980 temperature mean (Fig.…”

Section: North American Gst Changesupporting

confidence: 77%

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North American regional climate reconstruction from ground surface temperature histories

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Within the framework of the PAGES NAm2k project, 510 North American borehole temperature-depth profiles were analyzed to infer recent climate changes. To facilitate comparisons and to study the same time period, the profiles were truncated at 300 m. Ground surface temperature histories for the last 500 years were obtained for a model describing temperature changes at the surface for several climate-differentiated regions in North America. The evaluation of the model is done by inversion of temperature perturbations using singular value decomposition and its solutions are assessed using a Monte Carlo approach. The results within 95 % confidence interval suggest a warming between 1.0 and 2.5 K during the last two centuries. A regional analysis, composed of mean temperature changes over the last 500 years and geographical maps of ground surface temperatures, show that all regions experienced warming, but this warming is not spatially uniform and is more marked in northern regions.

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Section: North American Gst Changesupporting

confidence: 77%

“…These disparities among different proxy-based reconstructions can be attributed to a combination of factors as discussed in Pollack and Smerdon Tree rings (Trouet et. al., 2013) CRUTEM4 NAmGSTH (300 m) Pollen (Trouet et. al., 2013) Pollen (Viau et.…”

Section: North American Gst Changementioning

confidence: 99%

North American regional climate reconstruction from ground surface temperature histories

et al. 2016

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“…Temperature changes in the NE US during the late Holocene are generally inferred from global, Northern Hemisphere, and North American research that draws on marine archives (Marcott et al, 2013), tree rings in adjacent regions (Esper et al, 2002;Mann et al, 2009;Trouet et al, 2013), and continental-scale pollen-based climate reconstructions (Viau et al, 2012;Trouet et al, 2013). Such data show declining temperatures during the past 3000 years (during the "neoglacial") until about 1700 CE (250 cal yr BP), when the current regional warming trend began.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Many ecosystem processes that influence Earth system feedbacks -vegetation growth, water and nutrient cycling, disturbance regimes -are strongly influenced by multidecadal-to millennial-scale climate variations that cannot be directly observed. Paleoclimate records provide information about these variations, forming the basis of our understanding and modeling of them. Fossil pollen records are abundant in the NE US, but cannot simultaneously provide information about paleoclimate and past vegetation in a modeling context because this leads to circular logic. If pollen data are used to constrain past vegetation changes, then the remaining paleoclimate archives in the northeastern US (NE US) are quite limited. Nonetheless, a growing number of diverse reconstructions have been developed but have not yet been examined together. Here we conduct a systematic review, assessment, and comparison of paleotemperature and paleohydrological proxies from the NE US for the last 3000 years. Regional temperature reconstructions (primarily summer) show a long-term cooling trend (1000 BCE-1700 CE) consistent with hemispheric-scale reconstructions, while hydroclimate data show gradually wetter conditions through the present day. Multiple proxies suggest that a prolonged, widespread drought occurred between 550 and 750 CE. Dry conditions are also evident during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which was warmer and drier than the Little Ice Age and drier than today. There is some evidence for an acceleration of the longer-term wetting trend in the NE US during the past century; coupled with an abrupt shift from decreasing to increasing temperatures in the past century, these changes could have wide-ranging implications for species distributions, ecosystem dynamics, and extreme weather events. More work is needed to gather paleoclimate data in the NE US to make inter-proxy comparisons and to improve estimates of uncertainty in reconstructions.

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“…general drying of the Northwest, likely due to a reduction in precipitation rather than a negative evapotranspiration-driven effect from temperature (PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013;Trouet et al, 2013;Wahl et al, 2012).…”

Section: Differences Between the First And Second Millennia 25mentioning

confidence: 99%

Millennial-to-centennial patterns and trends in the hydroclimate of North America over the past 2000 years

Shuman

Routson

McKay

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract.A synthesis of 93 hydrologic records from across North and Central America, and adjacent tropical and Arctic islands, reveals centennial to millennial trends in the regional hydroclimates of the Common Era (CE; past 2000 years). The hydrological records derive from materials stored in lakes, bogs, caves, and ice from extant glaciers, which have the continuity through time to preserve low-frequency (>100 year) climate signals that may not be well represented by other 20 shorter-lived archives, such as tree-ring chronologies. The most common pattern, represented in 46 (49%) of the records, indicates that the centuries before 1000 CE were drier than the centuries since that time. Principal components analysis indicates that millennial-scale trends represent the dominant pattern of variance in the southwest and northeast U.S., the midcontinent, Pacific Northwest, the Arctic, and the tropics, although not all records within a region show the same direction of change. The Pacific Northwest, Greenland, and the southernmost tier of the tropical sites tended to dry toward present, as 25 many other areas became wetter than before. Twenty-two records (24%) indicate that the Medieval period (800-1300 CE) was drier than the Little Ice Age (1400-1900 CE), but in many cases the difference was part of the longer millennial-scale trend, and, in 25 records (27%), the Medieval period represented a pluvial (wet) phase. Where quantitative records permitted a comparison, we found that centennial-scale fluctuations over the Common Era represented changes of 3-7% of the modern inter-annual range of variability in precipitation, but the accumulation of these long-term trends over the entirety of the 30Holocene caused recent centuries to be significantly wetter, on average, than most of the past 11,000 years.

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A 1500-year reconstruction of annual mean temperature for temperate North America on decadal-to-multidecadal time scales

Cited by 94 publications

References 65 publications

North American regional climate reconstruction from ground surface temperature histories

North American regional climate reconstruction from ground surface temperature histories

Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years

Millennial-to-centennial patterns and trends in the hydroclimate of North America over the past 2000 years

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